Eli Lilly (LLY) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Upcoming Volatility

• Eli Lilly’s current price of $719.68 sits near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Options data reveals a 0.867 put/call open interest ratio, with heavy call activity at $737.5 and $800 strikes, hinting at bullish positioning.
• Positive drug trial results and $5 billion manufacturing investments contrast with a halted obesity trial, creating mixed but actionable momentum.

The interplay of technical indicators and options positioning suggests upside potential for LLY in the near term, despite a bearish short-term trend. The stock’s proximity to key support levels and elevated call open interest at $737.5 and $800 strikes indicate a strategic inflection point for traders.

Bullish Sentiment in Options Activity: Key Strike Levels and Risk Zones

The options market is heavily skewed toward bullish positioning, with the $737.5 call (OI: 2,067) and $800 call (OI: 2,543) dominating open interest for Friday expiration. These strikes align with the 30-day support/resistance range (730.99–732.60), suggesting traders are hedging or speculating on a rebound above this critical threshold. Conversely, put open interest peaks at $710 (OI: 791) and $715 (OI: 767), reflecting defensive positioning below the current price. The 0.867 put/call ratio (calls: 229,262; puts: 198,777) underscores a marginal bullish bias, though the absence of block trades means no major institutional bets are skewing the data.

The technical landscape reinforces this narrative. LLY’s price is trading below its 30D ($732.96), 100D ($751.98), and 200D ($784.38) moving averages, signaling a bearish trend. However, the RSI at 44.53 and MACD histogram (-2.92) suggest oversold conditions, increasing the likelihood of a short-term bounce. Traders should monitor the $719.43 lower Bollinger Band as a critical support level; a break below this could trigger a test of the $710–715 put-heavy zone.

News-Driven Momentum: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Eli Lilly’s recent news flow is a mixed bag. The $5 billion Virginia manufacturing facility and $6.5 billion Texas plant announcements signal long-term supply chain resilience and align with the company’s $50 billion U.S. capital expansion. These projects, coupled with the FDA approval of Inluriyo and positive Phase 3 results for orforglipron, reinforce Lilly’s leadership in obesity and oncology. The $10.5% weight loss data from orforglipron’s trial, in particular, could drive renewed investor confidence.

However, the halted bimagrumab trial introduces near-term uncertainty. While the drug’s safety concerns are a setback, the active Phase 2 trial for non-diabetic obesity and the $38% risk reduction from Inluriyo provide a buffer. The key takeaway is that Lilly’s pipeline strength and capital investments outweigh the bimagrumab setback, making the stock a candidate for a rebound if the $719.43 support holds.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls, Puts, and Price Targets

For options traders, the $737.5 call (Friday expiry) offers a high-probability play if LLY breaks above $730.99. This strike is within the 30D support range and has the second-highest open interest, indicating liquidity and institutional interest. A stop-loss below $719.43 would protect against a breakdown. For next Friday’s expirations, the $765 call (OI: 821) is a longer-term bet, aligning with the 200D moving average as a potential resistance target.

Stock traders should consider entry near $719.43 if the lower Bollinger Band holds, with a target at $730.99 (30D support). A break above $732.60 could trigger a test of the $745.48 middle Bollinger Band. Conversely, a drop below $710 (put-heavy zone) could justify a short-term bearish put spread using the $710–715 strikes.Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for the Next Move

The convergence of technical indicators, options positioning, and news flow points to increased volatility in the coming weeks. Traders should prioritize liquidity at the $737.5 and $765 call strikes while monitoring the $710–715 put zone for potential short-term reversals. Lilly’s upcoming conference appearances and regulatory updates for Kisunla and orforglipron will further shape sentiment. A disciplined approach—balancing bullish call exposure with defensive puts—offers the best path to capitalize on this pivotal phase in LLY’s trajectory.