Eli Lilly Falls as Weight-Loss Pill Data Disappoints, Novo Nordisk Rises

Lilly & Co. shares fell 13% in premarket trading after disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill overshadowed strong growth from its current obesity medicine. The company raised its yearly profit and sales outlook, but investors were concerned about the pill's performance, which was seen as a boon for rival Novo Nordisk A/S. Lilly plans to submit the findings from the 18-month study to regulatory agencies by the end of the year.

Eli Lilly & Co. experienced a significant setback in premarket trading on Thursday, as shares fell by more than 13% following the release of disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill. This news overshadowed the company's strong growth in its current obesity medicine, which had driven it to raise its yearly profit and sales outlook. The company's stock was particularly affected by the underperformance of its oral GLP-1 pill, orforglipron, which showed less effective weight loss results compared to expectations [1].

In the 18-month study involving over 3,100 adults, patients on the highest dose of the pill shed roughly 11% of their body weight, or about 25 pounds. This result was seen as less impressive than the 15% weight loss achieved by patients using Novo Nordisk's injectable drug Wegovy in late-stage trials. The underwhelming performance of Lilly's pill was a boon for rival Novo Nordisk, whose shares rose by as much as 12.5% in Copenhagen [1].

Despite the setback, Lilly's current obesity medicine, Zepbound, and its diabetes medicine, Mounjaro, continued to perform well. The company reported second-quarter sales of $15.6 billion, exceeding analysts' average estimates of $14.7 billion. Adjusted profits were $6.29 per share, outpacing analysts' expectations of $5.57 per share [2].

Lilly plans to submit the findings from the 18-month study to regulatory agencies for approval by the end of the year. If approved, the once-daily pill is expected to hit pharmacy shelves next year. The pill is easier to manufacture than Lilly's current injectable Zepbound and is anticipated to be a cheaper option for patients [1].

In addition to the weight-loss pill data, Lilly also increased its sales projections for the year. The company now expects revenue between $60 billion and $62 billion, up from a range of $58 billion to $61 billion. The company expects 2025 profit to reach $21.75 to $23 a share, up from $20.78 to $22.28 [1].

The stock market reaction to Lilly's earnings report underscores the importance of successful product launches in the pharmaceutical industry. Investors are closely watching Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill to see if it can meet the high expectations set by injectable treatments like Wegovy. The company's ability to navigate this competitive landscape will be critical to its future success.

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/eli-lilly-falls-as-weight-loss-pill-data-overshadows-sales-beat
[2] https://sherwood.news/markets/eli-lilly-craters-after-disappointing-trial-results-for-its-glp-1-pill/