Eli Lilly's 3.01% Stock Surge Elevates It to Top S&P 500 Performers Amid Mounjaro Trial Momentum and GLP-1 Market Leadership

Eli Lilly’s stock closed with a 3.01% gain on August 1, 2025, trading at $760.00 post-market after a 0.8% premarket decline. The company’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) demonstrated non-inferiority to Trulicity in reducing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE-3) in its Surpass-CVOT trial, a key regulatory milestone. Despite meeting endpoints, the dual-agonist drug showed an 8% relative risk reduction compared to Trulicity, falling short of analyst expectations for superiority. This muted performance, coupled with broader sector pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive drug pricing policies, dampened investor enthusiasm. The trial enrolled 13,299 patients and highlighted Mounjaro’s additional benefits in kidney protection and mortality reduction, though analysts noted the results aligned more with non-inferiority than the market-hoped superiority over Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic. Regulatory submissions are slated for year-end, with market positioning expected to strengthen as Mounjaro’s sales outpace Novo’s GLP-1 therapies by 2031.

The stock’s 3.01% daily surge placed Eli Lilly among the top performers in the S&P 500, driven by its dominant position in the GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes markets. Mounjaro and Zepbound’s combined revenue approached $13 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting 45% year-over-year growth. However, competitive pressures persist as Novo Nordisk’s preferred listing deal with CVS Health for its GLP-1 drug temporarily dented Eli Lilly’s market share. The company’s pipeline, including the next-gen GLP-1 candidate orforglipron, remains a key growth driver, with potential FDA submissions in 2025 and 2026. Analysts remain cautious, noting that Mounjaro’s cardiovascular benefits, while clinically significant, may not fully offset pricing headwinds from Trump’s Most Favored Nation policy, which mandates U.S. drugmakers charge what other countries pay. This regulatory uncertainty, combined with Novo’s SUSTAIN-6 trial precedent (26% MACE reduction for Ozempic), underscores the need for Eli Lilly to differentiate Mounjaro’s long-term value proposition.

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