EIA sees 2025 WTI price average of 61.81/bbl, vs prior forecast 63.88/bbl; 2026 forecast of 55.24/bbl (pvs 57.48/bbl)

EIA sees 2025 WTI price average of 61.81/bbl, vs prior forecast 63.88/bbl; 2026 forecast of 55.24/bbl (pvs 57.48/bbl)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2025 and 2026 WTI crude oil price forecasts, reflecting a more bearish outlook on global oil markets. The new projections indicate an average WTI price of $61.81 per barrel in 2025, down from the previous estimate of $63.88, and $55.24 per barrel in 2026, compared to the prior forecast of $57.48 [EIA].

These adjustments come amidst a series of developments in the global oil market. Energy intelligence firm Kpler has stated that U.S. crude oil supply will rise more slowly than expected for the rest of 2025 and 2026, and peak as early as this year. This prediction is largely due to WTI benchmark prices falling below $60 per barrel, which is testing the breakeven point for shale production [1].

The recent OPEC+ decision to increase collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) has also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices. Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts, now expecting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, down by $2 from its previous estimates [2].

Barclays has also lowered its Brent oil price forecast, projecting $66 per barrel for 2025 and $60 per barrel for 2026, citing the OPEC+ decision to accelerate oil production hikes [3]. Standard Chartered has cut its 2025 oil price forecast by $16 per barrel to $61 per barrel and its 2026 forecast by $7 per barrel to $78 per barrel, attributing the change to the Trump administration's tariff-based policies and the potential recessionary impact on the U.S. economy [4].

The U.S. shale industry, which is highly responsive to oil price changes, is expected to cut back on drilling activities due to lower margins. This caution is likely to slow shale production and contribute to a peak in U.S. crude output this year, according to Kpler [1].

Despite these challenges, the global oil market remains tight, with high spare capacity and a high risk of recession skewing risks to the downside. The EIA's revised forecasts reflect a more cautious outlook, but the market will continue to be influenced by geopolitical developments, economic indicators, and OPEC+ production decisions.

References:
[1] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Crude-Oil-Output-to-Peak-Sooner-Than-Expected.html
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3RD0D5:0-goldman-sachs-lowers-oil-price-forecast-after-opec-decision-to-boost-output/
[3] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/barclays-cuts-2025-2026-brent-crude-forecast-as-opec-accelerates-output-hikes/articleshow/120887221.cms?from=mdr
[4] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/StanChart-Cuts-2025-Oil-Price-Forecast-By-16bbl-Amid-Trumps-Tariffs.html