Economists expect the Fed to signal a rate cut in September, and resource stocks are expected to stabilize (listed concepts)

According to a survey of economists by the media, the Fed may signal a September rate cut this week and believe that it will be the first of a series of rate cuts every quarter until 2025.

Two-thirds of respondents said the Fed will be laying the groundwork for a 25-bp rate cut at its meeting on July 30-31 to prepare for the next meeting in September.

However, they disagreed on how the central bank will achieve this goal.

Half of respondents said the Fed will signal a rate cut in the policy statement and in Jerome Powell's news conference after the meeting, while others expect the Fed to do only one of these.

All respondents expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week.

Minsheng Securities released a report saying that global risk assets fell collectively last week, driven by a liquidity shock from a reversal of carry trades, which further strengthened the market's concerns about assets related to real demand.

In the future, domestic weak reality + overseas "weak expectations" are both approaching marginal improvement, and the decoupling of US-China equipment investment is worth noting, and the negative impact of real demand will be re-recognized.

The resource stocks have adjusted significantly in the early stage, and the probability of stabilizing is large, and the counterattack opportunity brought by the Fed's interest rate meeting, the change of the US election and the political bureau meeting should be paid attention to.

The resource sector includes copper (copper, aluminum, gold), shipping (oil shipping, shipbuilding, bulk and dry bulk), energy (oil, coal) and so on:

Copper: China Nonferrous Metal Industry (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), Minmetals (01208), Jiangxi Copper (00358), China Nonferrous Metal Mining (01258) and so on.

Aluminum: China Aluminum (02600), China Hongqiao (01378) and so on;

Gold: Shanxi Gold (01787), Zijin Mining (02899), Zhaogong Mining (01818), China Gold International (02099), Lingbao Gold (03330) and so on;

Shipping: Orient Overseas International (00316), Pacific Shipping (02343), COSCO Shipping (01919), CPEC (01138), China Shipping Group (02039) and so on;

Energy: PetroChina (00883) and other three barrels of oil; China PetroChina (01088), Yankuang Energy (01171), Yankuang Australia (03668), China Coal Energy (01898) and so on;