Eaton (ETN) cae un 2.57% a causa del escepticismo acerca de la infraestructura de IA —¿es esta una oportunidad de compra?

Summary
• Eaton (ETN) trades at $344.37, down 2.57% from its previous close of $353.45
• Intraday range spans $341.56 to $350.955, reflecting heightened volatility
• Options chain shows elevated activity in put options with strike prices below $330
Today’s selloff in Eaton’s shares has been driven by broader market jitters over AI infrastructure spending, triggered by Oracle’s Q2 earnings miss. The stock’s sharp decline aligns with a sector-wide reevaluation of capital-intensive AI investments, as investors weigh long-term growth potential against near-term execution risks.

Oracle's AI Infrastructure Woes Spur Sell-Off in Industrial Giants
Eaton’s 2.57% intraday drop is directly tied to Oracle’s Q2 FY2026 earnings report, which revealed a $15 billion upward revision in AI infrastructure CapEx. The market’s negative reaction to Oracle’s aggressive spending—despite a non-GAAP EPS beat—has spilled over into industrial peers like Eaton, which supplies critical components for data center infrastructure. Analysts now question whether such capital outlays will translate into sustainable revenue growth, triggering a risk-off sentiment in the sector. Eaton’s exposure to AI-driven power solutions and its recent acquisition of Resilient Power Systems have amplified its sensitivity to these macroeconomic concerns.

Electrical Equipment & Parts Sector Under Pressure as AI Optimism Fades
The Electrical Equipment & Parts sector, led by Vertiv (VRTX) and Hubbell (HUBB), has mirrored Eaton’s decline, with the industry index down 2.63% on the day. Vertiv, a key player in data center cooling, trades at $169.76 (-6.63%), while Hubbell holds up relatively better at $457.14 (+2.00%). The sector’s 54.44% YTD return contrasts sharply with today’s selloff, highlighting the fragility of AI-driven growth narratives amid rising capital cost concerns. Eaton’s 2.57% drop aligns with the sector’s broader correction, as investors reassess valuations in light of Oracle’s cautionary tale.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Put Options for Short-Term Volatility
• MACD: -5.71 (bearish divergence), RSI: 55.09 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 322.60–361.46 (price near lower band)
• 200-day MA: 337.07 (current price at 344.37, above), 30-day MA: 354.72 (price below), 100-day MA: 363.26 (price below)
• Support/Resistance: 338.91–340.10 (30D), 372.29–375.21 (200D)
• Key Levels: 342.03 (middle Bollinger Band), 338.91 (30D support), 372.29 (200D resistance)
• Top Put Option 1: ETN20251219P330
- Strike: $330, Expiration: 12/19, IV: 33.69%, Leverage: 168.03%, Delta: -0.197, Theta: -0.0487, Gamma: 0.0152, Turnover: 11,400
- IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility expectation, Leverage: Amplifies gains if price drops, Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price moves, Theta: Slow time decay, Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price acceleration
- This put option offers a 168% leverage ratio and high gamma, making it ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakdown below $330. A 5% downside to $327.16 would yield a 10.7% payoff (max(0, 330 - 327.16) = $2.84).
• Top Put Option 2: ETN20251219P335
- Strike: $335, Expiration: 12/19, IV: 34.06%, Leverage: 101.31%, Delta: -0.287, Theta: -0.0085, Gamma: 0.0185, Turnover: 1,662
- IV: Elevated volatility, Leverage: Strong return potential, Delta: Higher sensitivity to price drops, Theta: Minimal time decay, Gamma: High sensitivity to price acceleration
- This contract’s 101% leverage and 0.0185 gamma make it a high-conviction play if the stock breaks below $335. A 5% downside to $327.16 would yield a 17.3% payoff (max(0, 335 - 327.16) = $7.84).
Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize ETN20251219P330 for a 5% downside scenario, while ETN20251219P335 offers a higher-risk, higher-reward setup if the selloff accelerates.

Backtest Eaton Stock Performance
The iPath ETN (ETN) has demonstrated resilience following a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present. The backtest reveals a 3-day win rate of 60.57%, a 10-day win rate of 62.11%, and a 30-day win rate of 60.57%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.40%, with a maximum return day at 59, suggesting that ETN has the potential for recovery and even surpassing its pre-plunge levels.

Bullish Long-Term Outlook Amid Short-Term Volatility – Watch for $322.60 Support
Eaton’s 2.57% decline reflects near-term jitters over AI infrastructure spending, but its 33.95x P/E and 10.5% discount to its 52-week high suggest undervaluation. The stock’s technical setup—trading near the lower Bollinger Band with RSI at 55—points to a potential rebound if the $338.91 support holds. Sector leader Shoulder Innovations (SI), down 1.49%, underscores the broader market’s risk-off sentiment. Investors should monitor the 322.60–322.60 support zone and consider ETN20251219P330 for a short-term bearish play. For long-term holders, the 322.60 level offers a compelling entry point if the Fed’s dovish pivot in 2026 materializes as Tom Lee forecasts.