Earnings Season Showdown: Why Albertsons, UniFirst, and AAR Are Key Plays in 2026

As 2026 unfolds, investors are increasingly turning their attention to companies that have demonstrated resilience in navigating macroeconomic headwinds while delivering robust forward guidance. Albertsons Companies (ACI), UniFirst Corporation (UNF), and AAR Corporation (AIR) stand out as strategic plays, each offering unique insights into earnings surprises and forward-looking optimism. This analysis examines their Q4 2025 performance and 2026 outlooks to identify why these stocks warrant a closer look.

Albertsons: Navigating Earnings Volatility with Strategic Growth

Albertsons Companies, a retail giant operating 2,257 stores, has faced mixed expectations in recent quarters. While its Q3 2025 earnings report is scheduled for January 7, 2026, analysts project a Q3 2026 EPS of $0.66, a 4.2% decline from the prior year. However, revenue is expected to rise 2.1% to $19.17 billion, reflecting a cautious optimism about its omnichannel strategy.

The company's 2025 guidance-$2.06–$2.19 in adjusted EPS-highlights its focus on cost management and capital expenditures of $1.8–$1.9 billion. Analysts have raised price targets, with a mean of $23.53 implying a 36.3% upside from its current price. This optimism is tempered by historical volatility: Albertsons has missed revenue estimates three times in the past two years. Yet, its commitment to community support and digital innovation positions it as a long-term play for investors prioritizing resilience over short-term shocks.

UniFirst: A Tale of Earnings Disappointment and Optimistic Guidance

UniFirst's Q4 2025 results were a mixed bag. The company reported a net income of $41 million ($2.23 EPS), missing the $2.08 forecast. Revenue, however, surged to $614.4 million, exceeding estimates of $607.51 million. Despite the revenue beat, shares plummeted 17.3% in pre- and extended trading, underscoring the market's focus on earnings precision.

Looking ahead, UniFirst's 2026 guidance is bullish: revenue of $2.475–$2.495 billion and EPS of $6.58–$6.98. This trajectory suggests confidence in its industrial uniform and protective clothing segments, which remain insulated from broader economic slowdowns. For investors, the key takeaway is the importance of aligning expectations with forward guidance-UniFirst's ability to deliver on its 2026 targets could reverse its recent underperformance.

AAR: A Beacon of Consistent Growth and Raised Expectations

AAR Corporation has emerged as a standout performer. Its Q4 2025 revenue of $795.3 million-up 15.9% year-over-year- surpassed analyst estimates, while its Q2 2026 sales of $795 million reflected 16% organic growth. The company has raised its full-year 2026 guidance to 17% sales growth, a testament to its strength in aerospace and defense services.

AAR's Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $820.6 million (midpoint) already exceeds analyst expectations by 3.9%. This consistency in outperforming forecasts makes AAR a compelling play for investors seeking predictable growth. With a diversified business model and a focus on high-margin segments, AAR's forward guidance signals a company well-positioned to capitalize on 2026's macroeconomic trends.

Strategic Implications for 2026

The earnings season showdown among these three companies reveals critical lessons for strategic stock selection:
1. Albertsons offers a blend of defensive qualities (stable revenue growth) and speculative upside (raised price targets), albeit with execution risks.
2. UniFirst demonstrates the value of forward guidance in mitigating short-term volatility, provided the company can meet its 2026 targets.
3. AAR exemplifies the power of consistent outperformance, making it a low-risk, high-reward play in 2026.

Investors should prioritize companies like AAR, which combine strong earnings execution with credible guidance, while cautiously allocating to Albertsons and UniFirst based on their risk tolerance for volatility.