La política monetaria expansiva del Banco Central y la rotación en el liderazgo del mercado de valores

The Federal Reserve's shift from hawkish tightening to dovish easing has reshaped the investment landscape over the past two years. After aggressively raising the federal funds rate by over 5 percentage points in 2023 to combat inflation, the Fed began a deliberate pivot in 2024, cutting rates by 100 basis points by December 2025 to balance inflation control with economic growth. This policy shift has triggered a significant rotation in stock market leadership and opened new opportunities for risk assets. Understanding this rotation-and the sectors and assets poised to benefit-is critical for investors navigating the post-rate-cut environment.

The Fed's Dovish Pivot: A Timeline of Easing

The Fed's rate cuts, which brought the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by late 2025, reflect a strategic response to cooling inflation and a softening labor market. By mid-2024, inflation had eased from its 6.6% peak in 2022 to around 2.5%, while wage growth and hiring slowed, signaling the need for accommodative policy. The three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025 underscored the Fed's commitment to supporting economic activity while avoiding a recession. This dovish stance has created a fertile ground for risk assets, particularly those sensitive to lower discount rates and improved liquidity.

Sector Rotation: From Defensives to Cyclical Growth

The market's response to Fed easing has followed a classic sector rotation pattern. In the early stages of rate cuts, defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities typically outperform as investors seek stability. However, as the policy effects take hold and growth expectations improve, cyclical and growth-oriented sectors regain momentum.

1. Technology and Large-Cap Growth Stocks
The technology sector has been a standout beneficiary of the Fed's dovish pivot. Lower interest rates reduce the discount rate applied to future earnings, making high-growth, long-duration assets more attractive. The S&P 500, heavily weighted toward tech giants, has outperformed other asset classes in 2025, reflecting this dynamic. However, recent valuation corrections in the sector have created opportunities for investors willing to buy into pullbacks.

2. International Equities and Emerging Markets
A weaker U.S. dollar, a natural byproduct of Fed easing, has boosted the appeal of international equities. European and emerging market stocks have seen significant gains in 2025 as foreign investors find better value and growth prospects outside the U.S. This trend aligns with historical patterns where rate cuts drive capital toward undervalued global markets.

3. Fixed Income: The "Belly" of the Yield Curve
In fixed income, the "belly" of the Treasury yield curve (3–7 years) has emerged as a compelling risk-reward opportunity. These intermediate-term bonds benefit from a balance between capital appreciation and income, especially as long-term rates remain elevated due to structural factors like AI-driven productivity gains and public debt burdens.

4. Commodities and Diversifiers
Gold and Bitcoin have also gained traction as investors hedge against currency devaluation and seek diversification in a lower-rate environment. The U.S. dollar's decline has historically supported commodity prices, and 2025 has been no exception.

Structural Challenges and Long-Term Outlook

While the Fed's easing has fueled optimism, structural challenges remain. Long-term interest rates are unlikely to return to pre-2020 levels due to persistent inflationary pressures from demographic shifts, public debt, and AI-driven productivity cycles. Investors must balance the short-term tailwinds of rate cuts with the reality of a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Conclusion: Positioning for the Dovish Cycle

The Fed's dovish pivot has created a clear playbook for investors: favor large-cap growth, international equities, and intermediate-term bonds while hedging with commodities. As the economy navigates a soft-landing scenario, the key will be staying agile and capitalizing on the rotation before it matures. The next chapter of this cycle will likely see cyclical sectors and value stocks take center stage, but for now, the market is squarely focused on the opportunities unlocked by Fed easing.