DOTUSDT Market Overview: Polkadot/Tether on 2025-09-24

• Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) closed near 4.068, rebounding from a key support level of ~3.933 with mixed momentum.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern from 03:30 ET to 03:45 ET, suggesting short-term buying pressure.
• RSI remained neutral at ~50, while MACD showed a bullish crossover late in the session.
• Volatility spiked with a Bollinger Band expansion during the 03:30–04:15 ET dip.
• Notional turnover reached $2.3M during the 04:15 ET candle, coinciding with a sharp price rebound.

Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of 3.889–4.115, opening at 4.033 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closing at 4.068 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. The price action was supported at 3.933 and tested resistance at 4.08–4.115. Total volume traded was 6.88M DOT, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $27.7M.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong support cluster around 3.933–3.948, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern during the 03:30–03:45 ET session, which suggested a reversal of bearish momentum. A potential resistance level appears to be forming at 4.07–4.08, as the price tested this area multiple times. A 15-minute doji formed at 08:00 ET, signaling indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA was above the 50-period SMA at the end of the period, suggesting a possible short-term bullish tilt. For the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period SMAs were closely aligned near the 4.02–4.04 range, with the 200-period SMA acting as a medium-term support. Price appears to have closed above the 20- and 50-period SMAs, indicating positive near-term momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory during the 11:15–11:30 ET session, confirming a shift in momentum toward the bullish side. The RSI, which had dipped toward 38 during the early dip, returned to the mid-50s, showing that the market was not overextended in either direction. A bullish divergence between the RSI and price was noted during the 03:30–04:00 ET period, supporting the case for a bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and the technical indicators suggesting a potential reversal, a backtest hypothesis could be developed around a mean reversion strategy triggered by the bullish engulfing pattern and a RSI crossover above 40. The strategy would involve entering long positions after the RSI rises above 40 and the price breaks above a short-term moving average, with stops placed just below the 3.933 support level. A trailing take-profit could be set at the next resistance level of 4.07–4.08. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the rebound while managing downside risk.

Bollinger Bands

The price saw a significant expansion in Bollinger Band width during the 03:30–04:15 ET session, reaching a low of 3.927, which was below the lower band. This expansion suggests a period of heightened volatility and could be interpreted as a key support test. As the price re-entered the band range by the 05:00–06:00 ET period, the bands began to contract again, indicating a return to equilibrium in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 04:15–04:30 ET candle, reaching a peak of $2.3M in notional turnover as the price rebounded from the 3.927 low. This suggests strong accumulation or re-entry by buyers. The divergence between volume and price during the 19:00–20:00 ET period was notable: while price continued to decline, volume remained relatively low, pointing to a possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 03:30–07:00 ET swing identified key levels at 3.965 (38.2%), 4.005 (50%), and 4.029 (61.8%). Price bounced strongly off the 38.2% level and tested the 50% and 61.8% levels, but failed to break through the latter. This suggests that the 38.2–50% range may be key for continued consolidation or a new upward move.

Looking ahead, the price could attempt another push toward the 4.07–4.08 resistance zone. However, bearish risks remain if volume fails to confirm a breakout or if the RSI shows signs of overextension. Investors should remain cautious and monitor the 3.933 support for any signs of retesting.