DoorDash cae un 2.48% debido al dilema de la valoración y las ventas por parte de los accionistas internos: ¿Es esta caída una oportunidad para comprar, o un aviso de problemas?

Summary
• DoorDash (DASH) trades at $224.795, down 2.48% intraday, with a 52-week range of $155.40–$285.50
• DCF analysis suggests undervaluation at $367.81/share, while P/E of 115.13x signals overvaluation
• Insiders sold $136.8M worth of shares in Q4 2025, including COO Prabir Adarkar and CEO Tony Xu
• Analysts remain split, with a $277.17 average price target and 'Moderate Buy' consensus

DoorDash’s sharp intraday decline has ignited a valuation tug-of-war between bullish DCF models and bearish P/E ratios. With insider selling intensifying and a $239 price target cut by Wells Fargo, the stock’s near-term trajectory hinges on resolving conflicting signals. Key technical levels and options activity now frame the critical juncture for traders.

Valuation Discrepancy and Insider Exodus Fuel DASH’s Slide
DoorDash’s 2.48% drop reflects a clash between a DCF-derived intrinsic value of $367.81/share and a P/E ratio of 115.13x, which is 2.3x the Hospitality industry average. The recent insider selling spree—$136.8M in Q4 2025 from executives and directors—adds to investor caution. Meanwhile, a $239 price target cut by Wells Fargo and Zacks’ 'Strong Sell' rating amplify near-term bearish sentiment. The stock’s 52-week low of $155.40 looms as a psychological barrier, while the 200-day MA at $227.79 offers a potential floor.

Uber’s Rally Contrasts DASH’s Weakness as Delivery Sector Diverges
Uber Technologies (UBER) has surged 1.10% intraday, outperforming DASH’s decline. While both operate in on-demand delivery, Uber’s 2025 Q3 revenue growth (27.3% vs. DASH’s 27.3% in Q4 2025) and lower P/E (35.29x vs. DASH’s 115.13x) highlight divergent valuations. DoorDash’s premium to its peer average (35.29x) underscores its overvaluation risk, despite similar revenue growth rates.

Navigating DASH’s Volatility: ETFs and Options for Short-Term Bets
• 200-day MA: $227.79 (below current price)
• RSI: 52.59 (neutral)
• MACD: 1.82 (bullish) vs. Signal Line 2.06 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $219.58 (support), current price at $224.795

DoorDash’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with the 200-day MA and Bollinger Bands forming a key support cluster. The Tradr 2X Long DASH Daily ETF (DASX) at $18.01, down 4.53%, offers leveraged exposure but carries high volatility risk. For options, two contracts stand out:

• DASH20260116P210 (Put):
- Strike: $210, Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 41.67% (moderate), Delta: -0.145 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0306 (time decay), Gamma: 0.0156 (price sensitivity), Turnover: $1,244,000
- Payoff (5% downside): $14.795/share, 148% return if DASH hits $213.56
- This put benefits from moderate IV and liquidity, ideal for a 5% downside scenario.

• DASH20260116C227.5 (Call):
- Strike: $227.5, Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 42.22% (moderate), Delta: 0.435 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.7537 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0265 (price sensitivity), Turnover: $501,355
- Payoff (5% upside): $7.29/share, 16% return if DASH rebounds to $236.03
- This call offers a balanced risk-reward profile for a potential bounce off the 200-day MA.

Action: Aggressive bears may consider DASH20260116P210 if DASH breaks below $219.58, while bulls should watch for a rebound above $227.79 to re-enter long positions.

Backtest Doordash Stock Performance
The DASH ETF has demonstrated positive performance after experiencing an intraday plunge of -2% or more from 2022 to the present. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 59.38%, the 10-day win rate is also 59.38%, and the 30-day win rate is 68.36%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 12.57%, which occurred on day 59.

DASH at a Crossroads: Valuation Dilemma or Strategic Entry Point?
DoorDash’s 2.48% decline reflects a valuation paradox: DCF models suggest undervaluation, while P/E ratios imply overvaluation. With insider selling and analyst price target cuts weighing on sentiment, the stock’s near-term fate hinges on resolving this conflict. Traders should monitor the $219.58 support level and Uber’s 1.10% rally for sector cues. If DASH breaks below $219.58, the DASH20260116P210 put offers a high-leverage bearish play. Conversely, a rebound above $227.79 could reignite bullish momentum. Watch for the Q4 2025 earnings report on February 18, 2026, to clarify the path forward.