DOLOTRY Market Overview: Volatile Drop and Key Support Tested

• DOLOTRY traded down 12.1% in 24 hours, closing at 4.95 from an intraday high of 5.08.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed near 5.08 with volume surging to 1.16M on the breakdown.
• RSI oversold near 30 suggests potential bounce, but Bollinger Bands show elevated volatility.
• Volume spiked during the drop but failed to confirm a strong directional bias.
• 20-period MA on 15-min chart is bearish, with price below key support at 4.90–4.95.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 5.067 on 2025-09-23 16:00 ET and closed at 4.95 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range spanned 5.08 to 4.654. Total volume was 11.4M, and notional turnover reached $56.4M. Price experienced a sharp breakdown from 5.08 to 4.75, followed by a partial rebound, leaving key support levels under pressure.

The structure of the 24-hour candlestick formation reveals bearish momentum. A long black candle formed on the 2025-09-23 17:30 candle, with a high of 4.909 and a low of 4.752, showing a 4.0% move on strong volume (1.09M). This is followed by a bullish reversal attempt with a spinning top at 4.679 and a small body, but it failed to close above 4.72. The 5.08–4.75 swing shows a 6.6% decline, with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement landing at 4.89, which may offer a potential bounce level.

Moving averages suggest short-term bearish bias. The 20-period 15-min MA is below price, confirming the downtrend. The 50-period line is slightly higher, showing a potential flattening of momentum, but still bearish. Daily MAs (50/100/200) are not currently visible in the dataset but would likely show bearish alignment if extended.

RSI reached an oversold level of 30 following the 4.75 low, suggesting possible near-term reversal. MACD remained bearish throughout the 24 hours, with a negative histogram and a bearish crossover confirming the downtrend. Bollinger Bands show a wide band, indicating elevated volatility. Price closed near the lower band on the 2025-09-24 12:00 candle, hinting at a potential bounce or rejection.

Volume and turnover increased during the breakdown but dropped after the 4.75 low, suggesting exhaustion. The 4.75–4.95 range is showing accumulation, with price hovering above 4.90 as a critical support. No clear divergence is present between price and volume, but the lack of follow-through buying above 4.90 suggests weak conviction among bulls.

Fibonacci retracement levels show the 38.2% level at 4.96 and the 61.8% at 4.89 as potential pivot points for near-term traders. A retest of 4.90–4.95 could confirm or break this key support, with a break below likely targeting 4.70–4.65 as the next major psychological level.

Traders may watch for a potential bounce from 4.90–4.95 or a breakdown to 4.65, with RSI offering some early signal of reversal. While the trend remains bearish, oversold RSI could offer short-term buying opportunities, but only with strict risk management. A sharp rebound above 4.96 would be a positive sign, but it remains speculative.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy involves using a combination of RSI (14) and MACD (12, 26, 9) on the 15-minute chart. When RSI dips below 30 and MACD line crosses below the signal line, a long position is triggered with a stop loss at the recent swing low. A take-profit level is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This setup could be effective in identifying oversold conditions during a downtrend, but it would require filtering to avoid false signals during choppy price action. Given DOLOTRY's volatility, additional volume filters or trend confirmation from 20-period MA could enhance the signal quality. This approach would likely favor traders with a medium-risk appetite and a short-term horizon.