DOLOTRY Market Overview: A Volatile 24-Hour Cycle with Strong Pullback

• Price surged from $7.06 to $8.50 before retracing to close at $6.866, with a 20.8% pullback.
• Momentum peaked at 8.14 before weakening, with RSI hitting overbought levels twice.
• Volatility expanded sharply midday with a surge in volume and turnover, then collapsed.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed at 7.82-8.50, followed by a bearish rejection at 8.50.
• Bollinger Bands widened to over 0.40 during the peak, then narrowed to under 0.25 at the close.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at $7.06 on September 14 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of $8.50, and closed at $6.866 on September 15 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 110,584,717.8 units, with a notional turnover of $769,741,665.2, reflecting strong participation and volatility.

Structure & Formations

DOLOTRY displayed a classic three-wave structure: an initial bullish impulse from $7.06 to $8.50, a bearish correction to $7.70, and a final breakdown to $6.866. Key support levels emerged at $7.30, $7.00, and $6.85, with the latter acting as a short-term floor. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 7.82–8.50 range, which was later rejected at the 8.50 level, forming a bearish trend reversal. A long lower shadow at $6.85 suggested short-covering activity, while a doji at $7.10 indicated indecision near mid-range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over multiple times, with the 50 MA acting as a dynamic resistance in the afternoon. By the end of the period, the price closed below both 20 and 50 MAs, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200 MA lines showed a bearish divergence, with the 50 MA below the 200 MA, suggesting medium-term bearish momentum is likely to continue.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged into positive territory during the early afternoon, reaching a peak of 0.95, before reversing into negative territory by 22:00 ET. The histogram showed a bearish divergence with price during the final two hours of the cycle. RSI hit overbought levels (85) twice—once at 19:00 and again at 19:30—before entering oversold territory at 04:30 and 05:00. This indicated a strong bearish exhaustion after the initial rally and a re-test of key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a dramatic expansion during the peak price action, with a band width of over 0.40. By the end of the 24-hour period, the bands had contracted to a width of 0.15, suggesting a lull in volatility. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, below the 20-period SMA, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish trend in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked dramatically during the 19:00–20:30 ET period, with a massive 12.3 million units traded and $102 million notional turnover at 19:00. This coincided with a sharp rise to $8.50. However, after 22:00, volume and turnover declined sharply, despite a continued price drop, indicating a divergence in conviction. The largest single 15-minute turnover was at 19:00 with $102 million, versus a bearish final block of $68 million at 14:15 ET when the price dropped to $6.952.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 7.06 to 8.50 swing showed key resistance at 7.94 (61.8%) and 8.27 (78.6%), both of which were rejected. The 50% and 38.2% retracements (at $7.78 and $7.73) provided temporary support but failed to halt the breakdown. On the daily chart, the 78.6% Fibonacci of the broader move (from $6.85 to $8.50) aligned with the $7.15–$7.20 zone, which was also a key support level during the final hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy emphasizes entering short positions at 61.8% retracements following strong bearish rejections at overbought RSI levels. A stop-loss is placed above the 78.6% Fibonacci level of the most recent swing high. Given the recent breakdown at the 61.8% level and the bearish divergence on the RSI and MACD, this approach could be viable for the next 24 hours. Traders may consider a short entry at $7.00 with a stop at $7.30 and a target at $6.75.