DOLOTRY Market Overview

• Price declined sharply from 3.43 to 3.28 amid heavy selling pressure.
• Volatility surged in the 24-hour window, with a 3.7% range between highs and lows.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 3.382, signaling potential further downside.
• RSI approached oversold territory, but divergence suggests a possible bounce is unlikely.
• Turnover spiked during the 22:00–00:00 ET timeframe, confirming the breakdown phase.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 3.388 on 2025-11-01 at 16:00 ET and closed at 3.314 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. The 24-hour candle recorded a high of 3.439 and low of 3.26, with a total volume of 1,913,926.3 and a notional turnover of approximately 6,433,000 (based on volume weighted by price). A significant bearish reversal pattern has formed, indicating potential for further downside.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period has shown a distinct bearish trend, with a strong breakdown from the 3.43–3.42 resistance level and a key support level at 3.382 failing to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 3.382, where the close of the candle was below the prior open, confirming a short-term bearish bias. A long lower shadow and weak close suggest ongoing bearish momentum. A potential second support level appears at 3.35, where the price has bounced twice but failed to hold on both occasions. A break below 3.30 could trigger further selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) has moved below the 50-period SMA, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is currently above the 200-period SMA, indicating a medium-term bearish bias. The price is well below both the 50 and 200 SMA lines, reinforcing the bearish structure. Traders watching for a potential recovery may look to the 20-period SMA as a near-term resistance level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative and widened, indicating accelerating bearish momentum. The RSI has declined to 29, nearing oversold territory, but a divergence between the RSI and price action—where price continues to fall despite the RSI flattening—suggests a weak potential bounce. Momentum appears to be favoring bears, with no clear sign of a reversal at present. A sustained close above 3.35 may be required to reestablish bullish sentiment, though the current environment appears to lack immediate buying support.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands stretching wide over the past 12 hours. The price has spent most of the last 6 hours in the lower half of the band, indicating a strong bearish bias. A recent contraction in volatility around 01:00 ET preceded the sharp sell-off, suggesting a potential consolidation period prior to a breakout. The current price is well within the lower band, and a move toward the centerline could signal exhaustion of the current bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has surged during the late-night sell-off, particularly between 22:00 and 00:30 ET, with turnover peaking at 3.431 when the breakdown occurred. This confirms the strength of the bearish move. However, volume has since dropped off, suggesting that the immediate sell-off pressure may be abating. A divergence between falling price and declining volume could indicate that the bearish momentum is losing steam. A rebound without accompanying volume may remain vulnerable to further selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 3.439 high and 3.26 low, the key retracement levels are at 3.385 (38.2%), 3.348 (50%), and 3.315 (61.8%). The 3.385 level has been tested twice but failed to hold, and the 3.315 level may now become a near-term support target. If the price breaks this level, the next major support could be around 3.274. Traders may watch for a potential bounce or breakdown at these key Fibonacci levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish structure and confirmation from technical indicators like the bearish engulfing pattern and MACD divergence, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a breakdown below the 3.315 Fibonacci level, with a stop placed above the 3.348 (50% retracement) to protect against a potential bounce. A target for this short would be set at 3.274, the next Fibonacci level. This strategy assumes continuation of the bearish trend and that volume remains supportive of the move. A trailing stop could be used if the price shows signs of consolidating after the breakdown. The RSI’s near-oversold reading suggests that a bounce is possible but unlikely without a strong volume confirmation.