Dolomite/Turkish Lira Market Overview

• Price swung from 4.248 to 4.46, closing near 4.415, showing strong intraday momentum.
• Strong volume spikes confirmed key resistance breaks near 4.418 and 4.372 levels.
• RSI showed overbought conditions near 75 during late hours, hinting at pullback risk.
• Volatility expanded significantly with Bollinger Band expansion during the 08:00–10:00 ET window.
• Bullish engulfing patterns formed at key support levels, while bearish divergence appeared in the late session.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 4.305 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.415 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 4.46 and a low of 4.248, with a total volume of 18.9 million and a turnover of approximately 82.7 million Turkish Lira over the 24-hour period.

The price formed a key bullish engulfing pattern near the 4.319 support level, which helped drive a strong rebound toward 4.418. Key resistance appeared at 4.372 and 4.418, both of which were tested and briefly breached. A doji formed near the 4.418 level during the 08:15 ET candle, signaling potential indecision. A bearish divergence appeared in the RSI during the 11:15–12:00 ET window, suggesting a possible near-term correction.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover near 4.36, while the daily 200SMA acted as a floor during the early morning dip. MACD turned positive mid-session, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI reached overbought levels at 75 during the 08:15–09:00 ET window, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 08:00–10:00 ET window, indicating heightened volatility as the pair tested new highs.

Fibonacci retracement levels at 4.372 (61.8%) and 4.418 (78.6%) were key during the rebound phase. A retracement to 4.35–4.36 is possible in the coming 24 hours. Volume was notably higher during the 08:00–10:00 ET window, confirming the break of the 4.418 level. However, price and volume diverged slightly in the 11:15–12:00 ET window, hinting at weakening bullish conviction.

The market may remain range-bound for the next 24 hours if the 4.372 level holds on the downside. A break above 4.418 could target 4.445, but a pullback to 4.35–4.36 is likely before any further move higher. Investors should remain cautious of overbought conditions and bearish divergences, especially after a sharp rally.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy involves entering a long position on DOLOTRY at the close of a bullish engulfing pattern at key support levels, with a stop-loss placed below the prior low of the engulfing candle. A target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the 15-minute chart, with the assumption that the pattern and volume confirmation will drive a breakout. Initial testing would require historical data from similar candlestick setups and confirmation of RSI divergence as an exit signal. This strategy appears to align with the observed patterns, especially at the 4.319 and 4.259 levels.