El dólar se debilita, mientras que el oro y Bitcoin ganan importancia en las reservas globales.

Gold and Bitcoin have gained significant traction as global central banks and institutional investors shift away from traditional U.S. dollar-based assets. Central bank purchases of gold hit record levels in 2025, with holdings reaching nearly $4 trillion in value by early 2026. This marked a historic milestone, as gold surpassed U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw mixed momentum in early 2026, with sharp outflows following initial inflows at the start of the year.

The shift in asset preference is driven by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, and a search for diversification. The U.S. dollar has faced pressure due to rising U.S. debt and a series of policy-driven developments, including new tariffs and geopolitical interventions. In contrast, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has strengthened amid global instability. The Swiss National Bank, for example, posted a $32.52 billion profit in 2025, largely due to gains from its gold reserves.

Bitcoin's role in global reserves remains evolving. While its ETFs initially attracted over $670 million in inflows on the first trading day of 2026, subsequent days saw significant outflows totaling nearly $1.13 billion by January 8. This volatility highlights the speculative nature of digital assets compared to gold's more stable demand from central banks. Despite this, Bitcoin's institutional adoption is expanding. Morgan Stanley filed to launch its own Bitcoin ETF in January, signaling continued interest from major financial players.

Why Did This Happen?

Central banks are increasingly seeking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar. Over 1,100 tonnes of gold were added to official reserves in 2025, with China, India, and Turkey among the top buyers. This trend is a response to rising geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and shifts in global economic power. U.S. sanctions and perceived vulnerabilities in the dollar's dominance have prompted a reevaluation of reserve strategies.

The rise in gold prices—spurred by safe-haven demand—has been a key factor. The metal briefly topped $4,500 an ounce in late 2025, reinforcing its role as a store of value. Analysts at Bernstein note that central bank buying and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts will continue to support gold prices in 2026.

How Did Markets Respond?

The U.S. dollar has weakened against gold and other reserve assets. India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $9.8 billion in early January 2026 as the Reserve Bank of India intervened to support the rupee. This decline was attributed to dollar sales and revaluation effects as the dollar strengthened. Similarly, the Czech Republic's central bank posted a $3.5 billion loss in 2025 due to the stronger koruna, which reduced the value of its foreign currency holdings.

Bitcoin's performance has been more volatile. While ETF inflows initially signaled renewed institutional interest, outflows soon followed as market sentiment shifted. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.13 billion in outflows between January 6 and 8, reversing early-year gains. This highlights the broader market uncertainty, as investors remain cautious about digital assets despite growing adoption.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The key focus for investors and policymakers is whether gold can maintain its position as the leading reserve asset. Analysts suggest that central bank buying will continue to drive demand, with many institutions aiming to increase their gold-to-reserve ratio to 20–25%. If this trend persists, gold prices could approach $5,000 per ounce by year-end.

For Bitcoin, the focus is on ETF sustainability and institutional adoption. While the recent outflows signal caution, the filing of new ETFs by major firms like Morgan Stanley indicates ongoing interest. Analysts are also watching for potential regulatory developments in the U.S. and other major markets, which could influence investor sentiment.

The broader implications for the U.S. dollar remain uncertain. While it remains the dominant reserve currency, its relative decline against gold and the emergence of digital assets reflect a shifting financial landscape. Investors are advised to monitor geopolitical developments, central bank policy changes, and global economic trends as they evolve in 2026.

The growing diversification of reserves underscores the need for investors to consider a broader range of assets in their portfolios. Gold and Bitcoin offer distinct advantages in terms of inflation protection and safe-haven appeal, but each comes with its own set of risks and uncertainties.

According to reports, India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $9.8 billion in early 2026.