Dollar Tree Rises 0.77 as Volume Plummets 22 to 335th Rank Analysts Split on BuyHold Ratings

On August 20, 2025, Dollar Tree (DLTR) closed with a 0.77% gain, while its trading volume of $0.31 billion marked a 22.19% decline from the previous day, ranking it 335th in market activity. Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with 24 analysts assigning a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating, supported by nine "Strong Buy" recommendations and 14 "Hold" ratings. Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe recently reaffirmed a "Hold" with a $130 price target, implying a 15.6% upside potential from current levels. The stock trades above its $105.86 mean target but below the Street-high of $138.

DLTR's performance has been shaped by strategic shifts, including the planned $1 billion sale of its Family Dollar division to streamline operations. Despite recent revenue growth and a $2.5 billion stock buyback authorization, challenges persist. Analysts highlight concerns over weak digital strategy, competitive pressures from Dollar General and Walmart, and economic uncertainties. Earnings momentum has also been inconsistent, with DLTR exceeding estimates in two of the past four quarters but underperforming in others. The company projects full-year adjusted EPS between $5.15 and $5.65, with a 6.7% year-over-year growth forecast for 2026.

The broader economic landscape adds complexity. Meredith Whitney, a noted market forecaster, has shifted focus from dollar stores to higher-end retailers like Home Depot and Walmart, anticipating a "bifurcated economy" favoring wealthier consumers. Meanwhile, DLTR faces a potential earnings test as its customer base—often economically vulnerable—could struggle amid rising inflation and job market volatility. Rocket, SoFi, and Affirm, which benefit from home equity lending, have outperformed as homeowners increasingly tap into equity, signaling a structural shift in consumer financing.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day from 2022 to now delivered moderate returns, with total profit reaching $2,385.14 as of the latest data.