La debilidad estructural del dólar de EE. UU. y sus implicaciones para los inversores globales

The U.S. dollar, long the cornerstone of global finance, is facing a confluence of structural and cyclical challenges that are reshaping investment strategies worldwide. In 2025, the greenback has depreciated by 10–13% against major currencies, including the euro, yen, and Swedish krona, marking its worst start to a year since 1973. This decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation but a reflection of deeper vulnerabilities, including fiscal deficits, trade imbalances, and policy-driven uncertainty. For global investors, the implications are profound: the era of dollar hegemony may be waning, and a strategic reallocation to non-U.S. assets and local currency exposure is becoming increasingly compelling.

Structural Weaknesses: A Perfect Storm

The dollar's structural fragility stems from a combination of long-term overvaluation and policy-driven headwinds. According to ABN AMRO, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued by purchasing power parity (PPP) and fundamental models, despite its recent decline. This overvaluation has been exacerbated by the Trump administration's unilateral tariff hikes, which have introduced economic and policy uncertainties, eroding confidence in the greenback according to Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts-projected to bring U.S. interest rates down to 2.5% by late 2026-threaten to narrow the interest rate differential with other major economies, further weakening the dollar's appeal as reported by RBC Wealth Management.

Compounding these issues is the U.S. trade deficit and the erosion of the dollar's "hegemonic premium," historically underpinned by its role as a reserve currency and safe-haven asset. As State Street Corporation notes, the dollar's dominance is now contingent on policy consistency and fiscal discipline-areas where the U.S. has shown growing fragility according to State Street.

Investor Reallocation: A Shift in Capital Flows

The structural pressures on the dollar have catalyzed a strategic reallocation of capital by global investors. In Q3 2025, emerging market equities surged 11%, driven by strong performance in AI and semiconductor sectors in China and Taiwan, as well as the tailwind from a weaker dollar. Trowe Price highlights that investors are increasingly favoring non-U.S. investment-grade bonds and local currency emerging market debt, which offer higher yields and diversification benefits amid dollar weakness as noted by Trowe Price.

This shift is not limited to equities and fixed income. BlackRock notes that unhedged international equities have become more attractive as currency exposure enhances returns for foreign investors according to BlackRock. Central banks, too, are participating in de-dollarization trends, with many rethinking their reliance on U.S. assets and exploring alternatives in commodity markets and local currencies as reported by JPMorgan.

Strategic Implications for Global Investors

For investors, the dollar's structural weaknesses present both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, non-U.S. assets and local currencies offer attractive returns. For instance, Indonesia and South Africa have seen inflows into local currency bonds as central banks in these regions maintain policy flexibility according to Allianz Global Investors. On the other hand, the dollar's periodic countertrend rallies-driven by geopolitical shocks or Fed policy surprises-could introduce volatility.

A balanced approach is essential. Morgan Stanley and RBC Global Asset Management recommend diversifying portfolios across geographies and asset classes, while hedging U.S. exposure where appropriate. Investors should also monitor fiscal credibility and policy stability in non-U.S. markets, as these factors will determine the sustainability of the dollar's decline.

Conclusion

The U.S. dollar's structural weaknesses are reshaping the global investment landscape. While the greenback remains the dominant reserve currency, its long-term position is increasingly precarious. For global investors, the path forward lies in embracing diversification, leveraging local currency opportunities, and staying attuned to the evolving dynamics of de-dollarization. As the 2025 experience demonstrates, the future of global finance is no longer a one-currency story.