Resiliencia estructural del dólar: evaluando la tesis de la desdolarización

The narrative of a waning dollar is a persistent one, but the data reveals a more resilient reality. Dollar dominance is underpinned by deep, self-reinforcing advantages that create formidable network effects. Its preeminence is not a function of U.S. economic share alone, but of a global financial ecosystem built around its safety, liquidity, and unmatched scale. This creates a durable moat that gradual diversification, not a sudden collapse, is the likely path forward.

The foundation of this dominance is the dollar's overwhelming role as a store of value. As of 2024, it comprised 58 percent of disclosed global official foreign reserves, far ahead of the euro's 20% and the renminbi's 2%. This position has remained remarkably stable, with the share unchanged since 2022. A critical detail often overlooked is that these reserve shares are reported in dollars. Recent declines in the reported share are largely due to exchange rate movements, not active central bank selling. As one analysis notes, valuation effects explain 92 percent of the reduction in the dollar's reserve share during a recent quarter. When exchange rates are held constant, the underlying trend shows little change. This stability, even amid geopolitical tensions like sanctions, signals a lack of credible alternative stores of value.

This reserve strength translates directly into transactional dominance. The dollar is the undisputed medium of exchange in global markets. It is on one side of 89.2% of daily foreign exchange trades, a share that has actually increased from 88.4% in 2022. This dominance extends to the pricing of nearly all major commodities and the invoicing of a vast majority of international trade. The result is a powerful network effect: the more the dollar is used, the more convenient and efficient it becomes for everyone else to use it, reinforcing its centrality.

This system operates within a long-term fiscal context that is a source of pressure, but not an immediate crisis. The U.S. fiscal deficit is at 5.9% of GDP, and gross debt stands at 99.8% of GDP. These are significant levels that will require management. Yet the market's response has been one of adaptation, not rejection. The deep liquidity and safety of U.S. Treasury securities continue to attract foreign investors, with $9 trillion or 32% of marketable Treasuries outstanding held by foreign investors as of early 2025. The global financial system has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to absorb this debt, viewing it as a critical anchor for stability.

The bottom line is one of structural resilience. The dollar's advantages-its unmatched market depth, its role as a unit of account, and the network effects that lock in its use-create a self-reinforcing cycle. While geopolitical shifts and fiscal pressures will inevitably drive a gradual, selective diversification into other currencies, the path is not toward a multipolar system but toward a more layered hierarchy. The dollar's dominance is not a given, but its preeminence is a function of deep, systemic advantages that will ensure its continued centrality for the foreseeable future.

The Pillars of Pressure: Fiscal Strain, Geopolitical Weaponization, and Policy Uncertainty

The dollar's dominance is facing a multi-front challenge, but the pressures are not yet converging into a systemic crisis. Three distinct forces are at work: a deepening fiscal strain, the geopolitical weaponization of financial power, and a growing uncertainty about U.S. policy direction. Each is real, yet the dollar's entrenched position and the lack of a credible, unified alternative keep the current order intact.

The first pillar is fiscal strain. The U.S. government's financial position has deteriorated significantly, raising long-term sustainability concerns. The deficit for fiscal year 2025 reached $1.8 trillion, equivalent to 5.9% of GDP. This is more than double the 3% deficit target needed to stabilize the national debt. At the same time, the national debt held by the public climbed to 99.8% of GDP, roughly twice the 50-year historical average. The drivers are clear: spending on major benefit programs and net interest payments on the debt have grown by about 8% year-over-year, while corporate tax receipts fell. This widening gap between spending and revenue is a structural pressure that, over time, could undermine confidence in the currency's long-term value.

The second pillar is geopolitical weaponization. The U.S. has increasingly used its financial dominance as a tool of foreign policy, imposing secondary sanctions that penalize non-U.S. entities for transactions with sanctioned countries. This strategy has prompted strategic competitors to actively diversify away from the dollar. Russia and China now settle most of their bilateral trade in yuan and rubles, bypassing the dollar entirely. India has completed crude oil purchases from the UAE in rupees, and Brazil and China have eliminated the dollar from their bilateral trade. While a BRICS common currency remains a distant fantasy, the practical infrastructure for dollar-free trade is being built contract by contract. This is a direct response to the risk of financial coercion, a risk that grows with each new sanction.

The third pillar is policy uncertainty. The combination of aggressive tariff announcements and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence has contributed to a 10.7% year-to-date decline in the dollar. This move signals a tangible loss of its traditional safe-haven appeal. When a currency's value is pressured by domestic policy volatility, its role as a global store of value is called into question. The market is pricing in a less predictable U.S. economic and regulatory environment.

The bottom line is one of tension, not collapse. These three forces-fiscal imbalance, geopolitical pushback, and policy instability-are real and cumulative. Yet they have not yet triggered a crisis because the dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency, the default for global trade, and the anchor for the international financial system. The alternatives are not ready to step into the void. The pressures are building, but the system's inertia and the lack of a viable, cooperative replacement mean the dollar's status is under strain, not under siege.

The Limits of De-dollarization: Why Alternatives Fall Short

The ambition to challenge the dollar's dominance is widespread, but the reality is that no viable alternative exists. The euro, despite being the second-largest reserve currency, lacks the sheer liquidity and depth of U.S. financial markets. As of 2024, it accounted for 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, a fraction of the dollar's share. More critically, the eurozone's fragmented political and fiscal structure hinders its ability to offer a single, deep pool of safe assets on the scale of U.S. Treasuries. The renminbi faces even steeper hurdles, with its share of reserves hovering near 2% and its use in global transactions constrained by capital controls and limited convertibility. For a currency to serve as a global reserve, it must be freely traded and trusted as a stable store of value-a trust that remains elusive for the yuan.

This search for alternatives has played out most visibly within the BRICS bloc, where efforts to build a de-dollarized financial order have stalled. The group's grandest ambition-a common currency-has been abandoned. After the 2024 U.S. election, President Trump's explicit threat of up to 100% tariffs on any nation backing a new currency forced a retreat. Brazil's president quietly dropped the idea, and even Russia's Putin declared it was not seeking to abandon the dollar. The practical moves toward dollar-free trade, like China-Russia barter or India-UAE rupee deals, are incremental and bilateral, not systemic. The bloc's final declaration at the 2025 Rio summit contained no mention of a common currency, underscoring the gap between geopolitical rhetoric and economic reality.

The dollar's enduring preeminence is ultimately reinforced by powerful network effects. Its dominance is self-reinforcing: because it is the standard for pricing commodities, invoicing trade, and holding reserves, it remains the default choice for global transactions. As one analysis notes, "People use the dollar because everyone else uses the dollar." This creates a high barrier to entry for any competitor. Even if a new currency were created, the cost and friction for a country or corporation to switch would be prohibitively high unless a critical mass of others did the same. In this dynamic, the dollar's structural advantages-its unmatched liquidity, deep safe-asset markets, and entrenched global usage-ensure its continued preeminence. The path of de-dollarization, therefore, is not a swift replacement but a slow, transaction-by-transaction erosion that does not yet challenge the core functions the dollar performs.

Investment Implications and Forward Scenarios

The analysis of the dollar's position points to a gradual, managed evolution rather than a sudden collapse. For investors, this translates to a framework focused on monitoring the trajectory of diversification and the potential for a disorderly event that could accelerate capital flight.

The first implication is that central banks are diversifying their reserves, but the process is slow and does not threaten dollar liquidity. The share of U.S. dollar holdings in official foreign exchange reserves has declined from a peak of 72% to 58% in 2024, with a slight dip to 56.92% in Q3 2025. This shift is not a mass exodus but a measured reallocation. Central banks are adding a wider basket of currencies, including the euro and other names, while also increasing their holdings of gold. However, the physical quantity of gold held by central banks has only risen by less than 10% since 2015, and this increase is not systematically linked to a decline in dollar reserves. The bottom line is a gradual, managed diversification that preserves the dollar's overwhelming dominance in transactions and as a store of value.

The primary risk, therefore, is not a slow erosion but a disorderly event that triggers a loss of trust in U.S. institutions or fiscal policy. The dollar's recent weakness-down nearly 10% this year and marking its worst performance for the first half of 2025 in over 50 years-is driven by policy uncertainty, fiscal worries, and a reassessment of U.S. asset holdings. If a specific event, such as a major debt default or a breakdown in the rule of law, were to occur, it could accelerate capital flight and currency depreciation far beyond the current gradual trend. The current setup is one of "managed diversification," but the underlying vulnerability is the trust that supports the dollar's network effects.

Investors should monitor three key areas to assess this risk. First, the trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling debate remains a critical barometer of institutional stability. Second, the evolution of alternative payment systems, like China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which connects participants across 119 countries, offers a tangible but still niche alternative to dollar-dependent networks. Third, the geopolitical alignment of major reserve-holding nations is crucial. The retreat of BRICS from concrete de-dollarization plans, including the abandonment of a common currency by key members like Brazil and Russia, shows that even rising powers are wary of antagonizing the U.S. over currency matters.

The forward-looking framework is one of patience with a watchful eye. The dollar's dominance is resilient due to unmatched market depth and network effects, but its share of reserves is slowly declining. The investment implication is to maintain exposure to U.S. assets, particularly those tied to structural trends like AI, while using international equities and local currency bonds for diversification during periods of dollar weakness. The key is to monitor for any shift from gradual diversification to a disorderly flight from dollar assets, which would signal a fundamental breakdown in trust.