¿Es Dollar General todavía una buena opción, a pesar de las preocupaciones relacionadas con su valoración de mercado?

The retail sector in 2025 is navigating a complex macroeconomic landscape, marked by inflation fatigue, rising interest rates, and a structural shift toward value-driven consumer behavior. Against this backdrop, Dollar General (DG) has emerged as a standout performer, with its stock rallying 79% since the start of 2024. However, rising valuation metrics have sparked debates among investors: Is the stock still a contrarian value opportunity, or has it become overextended? This analysis evaluates Dollar General's fundamentals, macroeconomic tailwinds, and strategic positioning to answer this critical question.

Valuation Metrics: Elevated but Justified?

Dollar General's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.03 as of October 27, 2025, exceeds its 12-month average of 17.34 and places it in the top 25% of its sector. While this ratio is higher than peers like Target (12.7x) and BJ's Wholesale Club (20.5x), it remains below Dollar Tree's 23.6x. The company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.10 is also elevated compared to the Retail - Defensive industry median of 1.72 according to Gurufocus. Historically, DG's P/B has ranged between 2.05 and 9.63, suggesting the current level is not unprecedented but ranks worse than 69% of industry peers.

However, these metrics must be contextualized. Dollar General's enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 14.9x aligns with sector averages, and its valuation premium reflects robust earnings growth. For fiscal 2025, the company raised its diluted EPS guidance to $6.30–$6.50, implying a potential 14% year-over-year increase. This outperformance, driven by same-store sales growth of 2.5%–2.7% and net sales growth of 4.7%–4.9%, suggests the market is pricing in durable earnings power.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: A Structural Shift Toward Value

The U.S. retail sector is undergoing a profound transformation. Rising interest rates have dampened discretionary spending, pushing consumers toward essentials and discount retailers. Dollar General's business model-focused on affordability, convenience, and high-traffic locations-is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend. In Q3 2025, the company reported a 4.9% year-over-year increase in customer visits, with October's performance bolstered by Halloween and early holiday shopping.

Moreover, the labor market's softening and wage growth converging toward long-term averages have intensified financial strain on middle-income households. This dynamic has accelerated "trade-down" behavior, with consumers favoring Dollar General's value proposition over higher-margin retailers. As noted by McKinsey, 60% of U.S. consumers now prioritize price over brand, a shift that is structural rather than cyclical.

Competitive Advantages: Scale, Innovation, and Operational Discipline

Dollar General's competitive moat is anchored in its unparalleled store network, spanning 18,000 locations across 47 U.S. states. This density, particularly in rural and underserved areas, creates a logistical and customer acquisition advantage. The company's "Project Elevate" initiative- planned to open 575 new stores and remodel 4,250 existing locations by 2026-further strengthens its market penetration.

Technological investments are another differentiator. AI-powered inventory management, digital delivery services, and in-app convenience features are enhancing operational efficiency and customer retention. These innovations align with broader retail trends, as Deloitte notes that AI adoption is critical for optimizing supply chains and personalizing shopping experiences.

Financially, Dollar General has made strides in deleveraging. Its debt-to-equity ratio declined from 3.19 in 2022 to 2.36 in 2024, and the company plans to redeem $600 million in 2027 notes as part of a $2 billion debt reduction initiative. These steps, coupled with $1 billion in 2024 cash flow allocated to debt repayment, signal disciplined capital management.

Contrarian Considerations: Valuation vs. Long-Term Growth

Critics argue that Dollar General's valuation is stretched, particularly given its P/B ratio of 3.10 and P/E of 19.03. However, a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests that long-term free cash flow could rise to $1.9 billion by 2030, driven by compounding store growth and margin expansion. This trajectory implies that the current valuation may still be justified if the company sustains its 2025 performance.

A contrarian investor might also note that Dollar General's valuation remains below its historical highs (P/B of 9.63) and is supported by a sector-wide shift toward value retailing. While peers like Dollar Tree trade at higher multiples, DG's operational scale and debt reduction plans provide a margin of safety.

Conclusion: A Buy for the Long-Term, But With Caution

Dollar General's valuation is undeniably elevated, but this premium is largely justified by its earnings resilience, strategic reinvention, and alignment with macroeconomic trends. The company's ability to outperform peers in a challenging retail environment-through disciplined expansion, technological innovation, and debt management-positions it as a compelling long-term hold. However, investors should monitor near-term execution risks, particularly in its debt reduction timeline and the sustainability of same-store sales growth. For contrarian value investors willing to tolerate short-term volatility, Dollar General remains a buy, but with a focus on its durable competitive advantages rather than fleeting valuation metrics.