Erosión del dólar de los EE. UU. como activo de refugio: Redistribución estratégica a activos duraderos y mercados emergentes

The U.S. dollar, long the cornerstone of global finance, is facing an existential challenge to its status as a safe-haven currency. A confluence of structural weaknesses-ranging from unsustainable fiscal policies to shifting investor behavior-has triggered a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies worldwide. As Peter Schiff, one of the most vocal critics of the dollar's trajectory, has repeatedly warned, the erosion of confidence in the greenback is accelerating, with profound implications for global portfolios. This analysis synthesizes Schiff's warnings, the dollar's technical decline, and Morgan Stanley's macroeconomic projections to argue for an urgent reallocation toward hard assets and emerging markets.

The Dollar's Safe-Haven Status Under Siege

Peter Schiff, a consistent bear on fiat currencies, has sounded the alarm on the U.S. dollar's weakening position. He attributes this decline to a toxic mix of rising global debt, persistent inflation, and a lack of trust in U.S. fiscal discipline. "The dollar's role as a safe-haven asset is not just eroding-it's on the brink of a structural collapse," Schiff argues, emphasizing that investors are increasingly abandoning fiat currencies in favor of tangible stores of value. This shift is evident in the meteoric rise of gold and silver, both of which have reached record highs in 2025 as capital flows into precious metals.

Schiff's skepticism extends to Bitcoin, which he views as a flawed hedge against dollar devaluation. "Bitcoin's volatility makes it a poor substitute for gold," he cautions, predicting a crash in the cryptocurrency before the dollar's potential collapse. For Schiff, gold remains the ultimate safe-haven asset, offering a proven track record as a store of value during economic turmoil. His analysis underscores a broader rejection of both digital and fiat currencies, signaling a paradigm shift in investor priorities.

Technical Decline and Macroeconomic Headwinds

The dollar's technical performance in 2025 has mirrored these concerns. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has plummeted by approximately 11% in the first half of the year-the largest decline since 1973. Morgan Stanley Research projects further depreciation, estimating a potential 10% drop by the end of 2026. This downward trend is driven by a combination of factors: the delayed economic impact of tariffs, policy uncertainties, and a shift in hedging behavior by foreign investors. As global investors add foreign exchange hedges to their U.S. asset holdings, demand for the dollar has waned, exacerbating its decline.

Morgan Stanley's macro outlook highlights the dollar's waning safe-haven appeal. Historically, the currency has served as a refuge during global risk-off events, but this dynamic is fraying. The firm notes that the dollar's performance during periods of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty now lags behind its historical benchmarks. With U.S. interest rates converging with global peers and a growing risk premium attached to U.S. assets, Morgan Stanley forecasts the DXY could fall to 91 by mid-2026. While the dollar may see a partial recovery in the second half of 2026 due to a rebound in U.S. growth and improved investor confidence, the firm cautions that the long-term trend remains bearish.

Strategic Reallocation: Hard Assets and Emerging Markets

The implications for global portfolios are clear: investors must pivot toward assets that can hedge against dollar depreciation and systemic inflation. Gold, already benefiting from a surge in demand, is a logical first step. As Schiff emphasizes, gold's role as a store of value is unmatched, particularly in an environment of eroding trust in fiat currencies. Commodities, too, offer a compelling case. With inflationary pressures persisting globally, sectors like energy, agriculture, and industrial metals are poised to outperform as inflation-linked assets.

Emerging markets represent another critical frontier. While these markets have historically been volatile, the dollar's decline creates a unique opportunity. As foreign investors reduce their dollar exposure, capital inflows into emerging economies-particularly those with stable macroeconomic fundamentals-could drive equity and currency gains. Morgan Stanley's analysis supports this view, noting that diversification into emerging markets can offset the dollar's diminishing role in global portfolios.

Conclusion: Acting Before the Tipping Point

The U.S. dollar's safe-haven status is not merely weakening-it is unraveling. Peter Schiff's warnings, the dollar's technical decline, and Morgan Stanley's macroeconomic projections collectively paint a picture of systemic risk. For investors, the imperative is clear: reallocate capital to hard assets and emerging markets to mitigate exposure to a depreciating dollar and inflationary pressures. While the dollar may experience a temporary rebound in 2026, the long-term trend suggests that waiting to act will only amplify losses. The time to position for a post-dollar world is now.