Dogecoin Surges 7% Amid Altseason Speculation, Long-Term Holders Sell

Dogecoin has once again captured the attention of the cryptocurrency market with a significant surge this week, sparking speculation about the potential onset of an altseason. The memecoin's rally has been marked by a surge in bullish sentiment, with 75% of Binance Futures accounts holding long positions on DOGE. This optimism is reflected in the long/short ratio, which has risen to 3.0, indicating a strong bullish bias among traders.

However, behind the excitement, there are signs of caution. Long-term holders (LTHs) are selling at their highest rate in two years, as indicated by Santiment’s age-consumed metric. This metric has reached its highest level since June 2023, suggesting that older DOGE holdings are being moved, which is typically seen as a bearish indicator. This selling by LTHs raises questions about the sustainability of the current rally and whether it is driven by genuine conviction or merely by meme-driven hype.

The social volume surrounding Dogecoin has also skyrocketed, reflecting increased chatter and hype. This mix of euphoria and risk has historically fueled many altcoin peaks before steep corrections. While traders may be optimistic, the actions of long-term holders suggest that the smart money is stepping away, adding a layer of uncertainty to the current rally.

Historically, Dogecoin has been a reliable early indicator of altseason. The latest breakout from its multi-month downtrend has revived this narrative. According to Ash Crypto’s chart, DOGE’s price is mimicking its 2024 surge, breaking resistance within a rising wedge while the TOTAL2 index shows a similar setup. Both charts now flash bullish reversals, suggesting that if DOGE’s rally sustains, it could ignite broader altcoin momentum, as risk appetite spills into mid- and low-cap assets.

At the time of reporting, DOGE was trading at $0.2482 after a 7% daily gain, maintaining strong bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sat at 73.5, indicating overbought conditions that could trigger short-term profit-taking. However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) remained elevated at 47.94B, showing sustained buying interest. Price action suggests a possible push toward $0.30 if momentum persists. Yet, with the RSI overheated, there could be potential consolidation or minor pullbacks. As long as DOGE holds above $0.23, the bullish structure remains intact, with social buzz and volume likely to dictate the next major move.