Dogecoin May Rally: 28% Gain Possible if Bullish Pattern Holds

Crypto trader Josh Olszewicz, known by his handle @CarpeNoctom, has adapted the traditional equities adage “Sell in May and go away” to the cryptocurrency world, suggesting that Dogecoin (DOGE) could be an asset to invest in during the typically slow summer months. Olszewicz posted a one-day Ichimoku chart of DOGE/USD stamped 28 April 2025, with the caption “DOGE in May and Walk Away?” This chart highlights a critical price zone as the meme coin approaches the seasonally challenging month of May.

Olszewicz’s chart analysis includes an annotated February–April basing action marked with the classical letters S-H-S?, indicating a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The left shoulder formed in mid-March just above $0.14, the head spiked to roughly $0.13 on 7 April, and the market is currently probing for a right-shoulder low near $0.17-0.18. A duo of dotted trend-lines defines a downward-sloping neckline that currently intersects the price axis in the $0.185–0.195 area. A daily close above this band would validate the reversal pattern, with the measured-move objective implying upside toward $0.23. The white reference line drawn at $0.28181 marks a prior horizontal supply shelf and a secondary target if the pattern plays out in full.

The chart employs modified Ichimoku settings (20, 60, 120, 30) to accommodate crypto’s volatility. At the time of the analysis, Dogecoin was trading at $0.17533, wedged between a rising Tenkan-sen at $0.16471 and a flat Kijun-sen at $0.18593. Price below the baseline keeps the longer-term signal bearish, yet the Tenkan flipping beneath price hints at near-term momentum. Forward-projected thirty periods, the cloud itself is bearishly red with its lower boundary (Senkou Span A) beginning at $0.20825 and its upper boundary (Senkou Span B) flat at $0.31392. This means even a neckline break would deliver Dogecoin straight into a $0.21–0.31 supply zone that has capped every rally since early January’s cascade. Bulls therefore face a two-step job: first reclaim the neckline and Kijun, then chew through a month-deep overhang of supply inside the Kumo.

The maxim Olszewicz riffs on – “Sell in May and go away” – stems from centuries-old seasonality in equities, warning of weak summer performance. By substituting DOGE for sell, he floats the contrarian idea that the dog coin itself might be the asset investors walk toward, not away from, in a traditionally lethargic period. Technically that thesis hinges on bulls forcing a breakout in the opening weeks of May, before the neckline descends further and the cloud thickens. Failure to do so would leave the pattern unconfirmed, keep price imprisoned beneath the Kijun, and preserve the prevailing down-trend that began with January’s blow-off above $0.48. Support then rests first at the Tenkan ($0.165), with March’s capitulation wick near $0.14 as the final line in the sand.

At the time of the analysis, DOGE was trading at $0.178. Olszewicz’s analysis suggests that if Dogecoin can break above the neckline and Kijun, it could potentially move towards $0.23. However, the bearish cloud and the supply zone between $0.21 and $0.31 present significant resistance. The success of this thesis depends on bulls driving a breakout in the early weeks of May, before the neckline descends further and the cloud thickens. If this does not occur, the pattern will remain unconfirmed, and the price will remain below the Kijun, maintaining the downtrend that began in January.