Dogecoin Drops 31% From May Highs As 400 Million DOGE Flows Into Binance

Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that started as a joke, is currently facing a significant challenge as it approaches the $0.17 mark. The cryptocurrency community is closely monitoring whether "smart money" will hold their positions or capitulate under the pressure. The $0.17 level has become a critical point for Dogecoin, as it represents a psychological barrier that could determine the coin's short-term trajectory.

About 400 million DOGE hit Binance as Dogecoin dropped back to its $0.17 support level from a month ago. With DOGE still nursing a 31% drop from its May highs, this move could be smart money looking to break even. The big question is whether these holders are ready to exit or if the fear of missing out (FOMO) will keep them holding. This decision will likely determine if DOGE can hold $0.17 or if it ends up slipping below it.

On-chain data reveals that 30% of DOGE addresses are now holding at a loss, with acquisition prices sitting above the current spot of $0.18. Since DOGE broke below the $0.20 support, HODLers have begun capitulating. Over $800 million in realized losses were recorded in the last three days alone, coinciding with DOGE’s drop to $0.1680, signaling growing sell pressure. The 400 million inflow into Binance strengthens the idea that holders are preparing to sell into strength—if any remains.

It is the short to mid-term holders feeling the pressure, not the long-term holders. The "buy low, sell the pump" crowd capped the rally, once again steering DOGE into a familiar speculative cycle. This has pushed a chunk of addresses underwater. As Dogecoin tested the $0.25 resistance level, the Short-Term Holder NUPL flipped negative, signaling a full capitulation phase in this cohort. Such a capitulation has intensified downside pressure, forcing DOGE below the critical $0.20 support level and compressing profit margins while triggering a broader erosion of holder conviction.

The HODL Waves also reinforce this picture. The 3–6 month cohort’s share of Dogecoin supply surged from 10% in March to 15.53% at the rally’s peak. Right on cue, this cohort started trimming their bags, locking in profits, or exiting near breakeven. Their share has since dropped to 12.4% – A clear sign of distribution pressure kicking in. In short, as short-term holders wave the white flag, the wider DOGE crowd is getting forced into realizing those losses. Unless Dogecoin breaks free from this bubble, pushing past $0.25 is going to stay tough. That leaves the $0.17 support dangerously exposed.

If the smart money holds at $0.17, it could indicate that these investors have confidence in Dogecoin's long-term prospects and are willing to weather short-term volatility. This could provide a bullish signal for the market, as it would suggest that institutional investors are accumulating Dogecoin and are prepared to support the price. On the other hand, if the smart money folds at $0.17, it could trigger a sell-off, leading to a decline in the price of Dogecoin.

The outcome of this situation will depend on various factors, including market sentiment and the actions of other market participants. If the smart money holds, it could pave the way for a bullish run, as other investors may follow suit and accumulate Dogecoin. However, if the smart money folds, it could lead to a bearish trend, as selling pressure increases and the price of Dogecoin declines.