El soporte crítico de $0.18 del Dogecoin y el potencial de un próximo breakout

In late 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) has become a focal point for traders and analysts, with its price action around the $0.18 support level sparking intense debate. This level, a structural pivot and the lower boundary of an ascending channel since mid-August, has emerged as a critical battleground for bulls and bears. Technical and on-chain indicators suggest a high-probability upward move if the support holds, but the risks of a prolonged bearish phase remain.

The $0.18 Support: A Structural Battleground

The $0.18 level has repeatedly tested the resilience of Dogecoin's bulls. In late November 2025, the price fell below this threshold after whales offloaded 440 million DOGE over 72 hours, accelerating the decline. Analysts warn that sustained trading below $0.18 could trigger a drop toward $0.07, while a successful defense might spark a recovery to $0.26–$0.33. On-chain data reveals a dense liquidity pocket between $0.18 and $0.21, as confirmed by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This suggests that a rebound from the support level could attract renewed accumulation.

Technical indicators further underscore the significance of $0.18. A "death-cross" pattern formed in late October 2025, with the 50-day EMA crossing below the 200-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish bias. However, recent price action shows a fragile stabilization phase above $0.1290, with a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI indicating weakening selling pressure. If the price holds above $0.18, it could signal a shift in momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the $0.20 resistance level.

Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Dynamics

Whale activity has been a mixed signal for Dogecoin's trajectory. In December 2025, large holders accumulated 480 million DOGE, increasing their balances from 28.0B to 28.48B. Despite this, the price struggled to break through $0.1409 due to strong sell pressure. Network activity surged, with 71,589 active addresses recorded-the highest since September-indicating growing engagement.

According to trading data, a key turning point occurred on December 16, 2025, when Dogecoin dipped to $0.131 before surging in trading volume by 77% to $1.08 billion. This spike suggests a potential short-term reversal, though the inability to maintain the breakout above $0.18 implies liquidity-driven trading rather than sustained accumulation. Meanwhile, broader market trends, including Bitcoin's halving cycle and regulatory clarity, continue to influence Dogecoin's volatility.

Order Book Depth and Breakout Potential

Order book depth analysis highlights the fragility of Dogecoin's current position. Market analyst Ali Martinez emphasized that the $0.18 level acts as a "strong buy-the-dip zone" if the price holds. A descending contracting wedge pattern has formed, with three touches on the lower support line and two on the upper resistance line. A breakout from this pattern, supported by increased volume, could propel the price toward $0.26–$0.28.

However, the price's recent test of $0.18 after an intraday breakout revealed weaknesses. Trading volume spiked 96% above average, but the price retracted sharply due to profit-taking and distribution by short-term traders. This suggests that the move was fueled by liquidity rather than broad-based accumulation. Bulls, however, remain optimistic, citing a long-term rounding bottom pattern that could project a move toward $4.14 if the $0.18 level holds.

Catalysts and Risks

The Bitwise spot DOGE ETF, on a 20-day countdown to automatic approval in late 2025, could serve as a long-term catalyst for price movement. Additionally, Bitcoin's halving cycle and regulatory developments may indirectly boost Dogecoin's liquidity. Conversely, a failure to defend $0.18 could trigger a cascade of selling, with the MVRV Z-score and Stock-to-Flow ratio signaling potential instability.

Conclusion

Dogecoin's $0.18 support level is a critical inflection point for its 2025 trajectory. While technical and on-chain indicators suggest a high-probability upward move if the support holds, the risks of a prolonged bearish phase remain. Traders must monitor volume dynamics, whale activity, and broader market trends to gauge the likelihood of a sustained breakout. For now, the battle for $0.18 will define whether Dogecoin enters a new bullish phase or faces further consolidation.