Is Dogecoin Approaching a Major Technical Breakout Amid Seller Exhaustion?

The question of whether Dogecoin (DOGE) is poised for a technical breakout has become a focal point for traders and investors navigating the volatile crypto market. With the asset's price hovering near critical support levels and on-chain metrics hinting at waning bearish momentum, the interplay between technical price action and on-chain signals offers a nuanced picture. This analysis synthesizes recent data to assess the likelihood of a breakout and the role of seller exhaustion in shaping Dogecoin's near-term trajectory.

Technical Price Action: A Bearish Base with Divergence

Dogecoin's 30-day price chart reveals a bearish consolidation pattern, with the price fluctuating between $0.13 and $0.1870. As of December 10, 2025, DOGE closed at $0.1407, having tested a critical support level near $0.135. The 14-day RSI stands at 36.6, indicating neutral conditions but nearing oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD line, though slightly negative, has flattened, suggesting a potential equilibrium phase after a prolonged downtrend.

A key technical development is the convergence of the MACD on shorter timeframes. On the 3-day chart, the MACD lines are approaching a bullish crossover near the lower boundary of a downtrend-pattern historically associated with price rallies to $0.26 and $0.30 in April and July 2025. However, the daily RSI remains fragile at 45.35, and the long-term trend remains bearish, creating a divergence that raises the risk of a short-term correction. Analysts project that a breakout above $0.165 with increased volume could trigger a move toward $0.175–$0.25, a 47–90% increase from current levels.

On-Chain Signals: Accumulation vs. Outflows

On-chain data paints a mixed picture. While institutional selling pressure intensified in November 2025-marked by a 18.39% surge in volume above weekly averages-whale accumulation has intensified. High-value wallets absorbed over 4.7 billion DOGE during the price drop, signaling early signs of accumulation by "strong hands." Exchange flows also turned positive for the first time in six months, a historically bullish sign for market bottoms.

However, recent outflows have dampened optimism. By December 2025, DOGE faced $5.7 million in spot outflows and a 9% drop in open interest, reflecting traders unwinding positions. The NVT ratio has surged, indicating a growing divergence between Dogecoin's market valuation and on-chain activity. This suggests the asset may be overvalued relative to its transaction volume, despite increased whale accumulation and rising active addresses.

Structural Context: A Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern

Structural context is important here. . Dogecoin has spent nearly a year forming a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, with the recent low marking the "Spring" in Phase C. This phase is traditionally followed by Phase D, where price typically moves back toward the upper boundary of the range. Mid-November saw a 5.5% price increase to $0.1444, hinting at potential for a reversal. Yet, the pattern's success hinges on sustained buyer interest, and confirmation of key levels, such as the $0.1600 resistance.

The ETF Factor: Liquidity and Investor Sentiment

The launch of the first Dogecoin ETFs in November 2025 failed to generate significant inflows, with trading volumes plummeting to a record low of $142,000 in late November-a 95% drop from the $3.23 million peak. This underperformance reflects waning investor interest and broader market volatility, raising concerns about liquidity and the long-term viability of Dogecoin ETFs.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Risks and Opportunities

Dogecoin's technical and on-chain landscape presents a delicate balance of risks and opportunities. While the RSI's proximity to oversold levels and MACD convergence on shorter timeframes suggest potential for a breakout, the bearish NVT ratio and ETF underperformance highlight structural challenges. Whale accumulation and positive exchange flows offer hope for a reversal, but the lack of sustained buyer interest and ongoing outflows underscore the fragility of the current trend.

For investors, the key will be monitoring volume during a potential breakout above $0.165 and assessing whether on-chain accumulation can offset outflows. If the market confirms a shift in sentiment, Dogecoin could retest its 2025 highs. However, without a significant influx of new buyers or a broader market rebound, the asset remains vulnerable to further consolidation or a breakdown below $0.135.