La alteración de las apuestas deportivas tradicionales: DraftKings vs. Prediction Markets

The sports betting and financial forecasting industries are undergoing a seismic shift as prediction markets emerge as a disruptive force. Traditional operators like DraftKings are now competing with decentralized platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which have leveraged regulatory clarity and technological agility to capture significant market share. This article examines DraftKings' strategic expansion into prediction markets, evaluates its competitive positioning against newer entrants, and assesses whether this move can reinvigorate investor confidence in a sector increasingly dominated by market-driven alternatives.

DraftKings' Strategic Gambit: Regulatory Compliance and Market Expansion

DraftKings' entry into prediction markets is anchored in its acquisition of Railbird Exchange, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), for $250 million in 2025 according to reports. This acquisition allowed the company to operate under federal derivatives frameworks, securing approvals from the CFTC and National Futures Association (NFA). By December 2025, DraftKings had launched its DraftKings Predictions app, a standalone platform offering event contracts on real-world outcomes in sports, finance, and entertainment according to the announcement. The app's availability in 38 U.S. states-particularly in markets like California and Texas where sports betting remains restricted-positions it to tap into a new customer base without cannibalizing its existing sportsbook operations according to market analysis.

The company's approach emphasizes regulatory compliance and responsible trading features, including deposit limits, self-exclusion tools, and educational resources according to the company's statement. This contrasts with the more speculative and crypto-native models of Kalshi and Polymarket, which prioritize speed and flexibility in market creation. DraftKings also leverages its partnerships with media giants like ESPN and NBCUniversal to enhance its product's appeal according to industry reports. However, the company has faced short-term financial headwinds, including a 36.95% decline in its stock price over five years and a lowered 2025 sales outlook due to the costs of expansion according to financial analysis.

Kalshi and Polymarket: The New Guard's Dominance

Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as dominant players in the prediction markets space, backed by institutional capital and regulatory licenses. Kalshi, valued at $11 billion after a $1 billion funding round led by Sequoia and CapitalG, reported $5.8 billion in trading volume in November 2025, with sports-related contracts accounting for a significant portion according to market data. Polymarket, with a valuation of $12–$15 billion following a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), reported $3.7 billion in monthly trading volume, driven by macroeconomic and political markets according to financial reports.

Both platforms have secured partnerships with major sports leagues, including the NFL and NHL, legitimizing prediction markets as a hybrid of entertainment and finance according to industry sources. Their decentralized, crypto-native models allow for rapid market creation and broader speculative opportunities, appealing to a younger, tech-savvy demographic. For instance, Polymarket's integration with StockX for sneaker sales contracts highlights its ability to monetize niche cultural trends according to business analysis. These advantages have positioned Kalshi and Polymarket as first-movers in a space projected to reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the end of the decade according to industry forecasts.

Investor Sentiment: A Tale of Two Models

Investor confidence in prediction markets remains polarized. Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted institutional backing and high valuation multiples, reflecting optimism about their disruptive potential. Kalshi's CFTC-regulated structure and partnerships with traditional financial institutions have bolstered its credibility, while Polymarket's agility in creating speculative markets has drawn comparisons to Robinhood's prediction market hub according to market analysis.

DraftKings, by contrast, faces skepticism from analysts. While the company's third-quarter 2025 earnings report noted a 4% year-over-year revenue increase and bullish commentary from CEO Jason Robins, its stock price has struggled amid regulatory uncertainties and competitive pressures according to financial reports. Analysts at Benchmark and UBS have maintained "Buy" ratings, citing potential for shorter payback periods and better margins in prediction markets compared to traditional sports betting according to analyst commentary. However, projections for 2026 remain mixed, with median price targets ranging from $30 to $73 and short-term volatility expected according to market forecasts.

The Viability of DraftKings' Strategy

DraftKings' expansion into prediction markets is a calculated bet on its regulatory expertise, brand recognition, and existing customer base. By entering states where sports betting is restricted, the company aims to avoid direct competition with its own sportsbook while tapping into a $44 billion prediction market volume in 2025 according to industry data. Its integration of Railbird Technologies and phased rollout of new markets (e.g., entertainment and culture) could enhance product innovation and user engagement according to company updates.

However, the company's success hinges on its ability to differentiate itself from Kalshi and Polymarket. While DraftKings emphasizes responsible trading and regulatory compliance, its competitors offer faster, more flexible market creation and broader speculative opportunities. Additionally, DraftKings' traditional sports betting model faces structural challenges, including bettor-friendly outcomes and increased taxation, which have eroded margins according to industry analysis.

Conclusion: Can Traditional Sports Betting Survive?

The rise of prediction markets signals a paradigm shift in how consumers engage with real-world events. For DraftKings, the key to restoring investor confidence lies in demonstrating that its regulated, responsible trading model can coexist with the agility of decentralized platforms. While Kalshi and Polymarket have captured early-mover advantages, DraftKings' brand strength, regulatory compliance, and strategic market expansion could carve out a niche in this evolving landscape.

Investors must weigh the long-term potential of prediction markets against the risks of regulatory shifts and competitive pressures. For now, the sector remains a high-stakes gamble-one where traditional operators and decentralized innovators are vying to redefine the future of forecasting and betting.