DIA/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• DIA/USDT tested key support near 0.4675 after a sharp selloff in early morning ET.
• Volatility expanded overnight with a 2.5% range as momentum turned bearish.
• High volume at 0.4675–0.4597 suggests potential for near-term consolidation or rebound.

DIAUSDT opened at 0.4787 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.4801 and a low of 0.4597 before closing at 0.4671 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume reached 260,534.2 and notional turnover was approximately $123,300 (assuming 0.4671 avg price). The pair experienced a sharp decline overnight, forming bearish inside bars and a strong rejection at 0.4675–0.4597.

Structure & Formations

Price moved from a 0.4787 open to a 0.4597 low, forming a bearish channel with strong support at 0.4675 and weaker resistance at 0.4734. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.4714–0.4705 and was followed by a long-bodied decline to 0.4597. The 0.4675–0.4597 range shows heavy accumulation and may serve as a pivot level for reversal or continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.4710) crossed below the 50-period MA (0.4725), signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has not yet confirmed a long-term trend, though the 100-period MA (0.4750) and 200-period MA (0.4770) sit above price, suggesting a potential for continued bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover below the signal line, confirming downward momentum. RSI dropped from 55 to 28, indicating oversold conditions. While RSI at 28 suggests potential for a near-term rebound, bearish divergence between price and RSI in the 0.4700–0.4730 range indicates caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight with a Bollinger Band width of ~0.012 (0.4675–0.4797). Price closed near the lower band at 0.4671, suggesting a potential test of the 0.4597 support. A retest of the upper band near 0.4735 could provide confirmation for a short-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 38,375.1 at 0.4675–0.4597, confirming strong bearish conviction. Notional turnover also increased during the selloff, aligning with price action. The divergence between volume and price at 0.4700–0.4710 suggests a weakening of bearish pressure, but large-volume bars near 0.4675 signal a potential pivot.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels on the overnight decline sit at 38.2% (0.4636), 50% (0.4626), and 61.8% (0.4611). A test of 0.4636–0.4611 may offer a near-term floor, while a break below 0.4611 could target 0.4597 as the next key support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent 0.4671 support level could serve as a key input for the backtest. Using the DIAUSDT symbol and a tight 0.4671 threshold (±1% for tolerance), we can evaluate how many times this level was tested and how price reacted in the following days. Integrating moving averages and RSI signals would allow for a refined strategy—such as a long entry on a bullish divergence above 0.4671 or a short entry on a break below 0.4611. Testing would include assessing holding periods, risk-to-reward ratios, and maximum drawdowns for practical trading insights.