Deutsche Bank Lowers ASML Price Target to EUR700, Maintains "Buy" Rating

ASML Holding N.V. has lowered its 2025 sales growth forecast to 15% and reduced its EUV unit shipment forecast for 2025. Despite this, Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Sanders maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of EUR700. The firm is concerned about execution issues at key customers, Intel and Samsung.

ASML Holding N.V., a leading provider of lithography systems for semiconductor manufacturing, has revised its 2025 sales growth forecast to 15% and reduced its EUV unit shipment forecast for the year. The company reported strong Q2 2025 results, with total net sales reaching €7.7 billion, gross margin of 53.7%, and net income of €2.3 billion [1]. Despite these positive figures, ASML's outlook for the remainder of the year has been tempered by concerns about execution issues at key customers, Intel and Samsung.

Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Sanders maintains a "Buy" rating on ASML, with a price target of EUR700. He acknowledges the challenges but remains optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. Sanders notes that ASML's gross margin is expected to remain robust, with a forecast of around 52% for the full year 2025 [2].

ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, highlighted the strong demand for EUV systems, particularly from AI customers. However, he also expressed caution about the potential impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties on customer capital expenditure timing. The company expects a 30% increase in EUV capacity in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by higher productivity of the NXE:3800E systems [3].

The reduction in the EUV unit shipment forecast is primarily due to a shift in revenue from system sales to the upgrade business. Many tools shipped at lower configurations are being upgraded to full capacity, which is accounted for in the installed base business rather than system sales [2].

ASML's share buyback program continues, with the company purchasing around €1.4 billion worth of shares in Q2 2025, totaling €5.8 billion for the 2022-2025 program. The company has also announced an interim dividend of €1.60 per ordinary share, payable on August 6, 2025 [1].

Despite the challenges, ASML's financial performance in Q2 2025 was strong, with net system sales of €5.6 billion, of which €2.7 billion was from EUV sales and €2.9 billion from non-EUV sales. The company's gross margin for the quarter was above guidance, driven by increased upgrade business and lower-than-expected tariff impacts [2].

ASML's Q3 2025 total net sales are expected to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 52%. The company expects R&D costs of around €1.2 billion and SG&A costs of around €310 million for the quarter [1].

References:
[1] ASML Holding N.V. Q2 2025 Financial Results
[2] ASML Holding N.V. Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
[3] ASML Holding N.V. Outlines 15% Revenue Growth for 2025 Amid Strong EUV Demand and Macro Uncertainty