Deutsche Bank analyst: Retailers get tariff relief — but refunds look messy

Deutsche Bank analyst: Retailers get tariff relief — but refunds look messy

Deutsche Bank Analyst: Retailers Get Tariff Relief — But Refunds Look Messy

Recent developments in U.S. trade policy have sparked renewed interest in the retail sector, with Deutsche Bank analysts noting potential benefits from shifting tariff dynamics. The Supreme Court's invalidation of President Trump's emergency tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has created opportunities for retailers, though the path to financial relief remains complicated by unresolved refund processes.

The court's 6-3 ruling on February 20, 2026, struck down tariffs imposed on nearly all U.S. trading partners, dealing a significant blow to Trump's economic agenda. While the decision removes a key cost driver for imported goods, retailers must now navigate a fragmented landscape. Trump swiftly responded by imposing a new 10% across-the-board tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, with threats to raise rates further to 15%. This shift introduces uncertainty, as businesses adjust to evolving trade rules.

Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that the initial tariff relief could ease cost pressures for retailers reliant on imported goods, particularly in sectors like apparel, electronics, and furniture. However, the process of reclaiming over $100 billion in previously paid tariffs—collected under now-invalid IEEPA tariffs—remains fraught. Legal experts warn the refund mechanism could take years to resolve, with businesses facing complex litigation and administrative hurdles.

Importers who paid the invalidated tariffs are eligible for refunds, but the Treasury Department and Customs and Border Protection have yet to establish a streamlined process. Trade lawyers caution that companies may need to pursue individual lawsuits to recover funds, delaying potential economic benefits. For retailers, this means cash flow improvements may be delayed, offsetting some of the near-term advantages of reduced tariffs.

While the ruling offers partial relief, the prolonged uncertainty underscores the challenges of navigating Trump's shifting trade policies. Deutsche Bank cautions that retailers must prepare for ongoing volatility, balancing potential cost savings with the risks of protracted refund disputes and new tariff regimes.

The New York Times, Feb. 20, 2026.