Acciones del sector de defensa en 2025: Cómo manejar el poder ejecutivo y las dinámicas del Congreso

The defense sector has emerged as a cornerstone of 2025's investment landscape, driven by geopolitical volatility, technological innovation, and surging government spending. However, the sector's valuation dynamics are increasingly shaped by a complex interplay of executive power and congressional oversight. As President Donald Trump's administration pushes for a transformative $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 and imposes stringent regulatory measures on contractors, investors must weigh the implications of these political forces on stock valuations and long-term sector growth.

Executive Power and Regulatory Leverage

President Trump's aggressive intervention in the defense sector has introduced both opportunities and uncertainties. His executive order titled "Prioritizing the Warfighter in Defense Contracting" mandates that defense contractors halt stock buybacks and dividends until they meet production targets, linking executive compensation to metrics like on-time delivery and innovation rather than short-term financial gains. This move, while criticized by some as overreach, reflects a broader strategy to align corporate priorities with national security imperatives.

The market has responded with mixed signals. Initially, Trump's announcement of the 2027 budget and regulatory pressures caused defense stocks to dip, with companies like Raytheon (RTX) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) experiencing short-term volatility. However, the sector quickly rebounded as global defense stocks hit record highs, buoyed by investor optimism over sustained demand for advanced technologies such as AI-driven intelligence systems and drone-based warfare. This resilience underscores the sector's perceived long-term value, even amid regulatory turbulence.

Congressional Oversight and Fiscal Constraints

While Trump's executive actions set the tone, the ultimate trajectory of defense spending hinges on congressional approval. The proposed $1.5 trillion 2027 budget-a 50% increase from the current $1 trillion- faces significant hurdles. Lawmakers, including Republican allies like House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, have expressed concerns about the U.S. national debt and the feasibility of funding such a massive increase without compromising other fiscal priorities. The 2026 defense bill remains unfinished, further complicating the timeline for 2027 legislation .

This legislative uncertainty creates a dual-edged sword for investors. On one hand, a fully realized budget could accelerate demand for defense contractors, particularly those specializing in missile defense. On the other, delays or scaled-back funding could dampen growth expectations. Analysts at Morgan Stanley note that current valuations for defense stocks do not yet fully account for the potential of sustained budget increases, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026.

Market Reactions and Sector Resilience

The defense sector's ability to absorb political pressures is evident in its stock performance. Companies like Kratos Defense & Security Solutions and Palantir, which have thrived on the shift toward AI and autonomous systems, have seen substantial share price gains in 2025. These firms exemplify the sector's transformation into a high-growth, tech-driven industry, insulated from some of the volatility affecting traditional contractors.

However, Trump's executive orders have introduced a new layer of complexity. By restricting financial flexibility for underperforming contractors, the administration aims to prioritize production capacity over shareholder returns. While this could pressure short-term earnings, it may also incentivize long-term operational efficiency. Deloitte forecasts that AI and agentic AI will scale from pilot projects to full deployment in 2026, particularly in logistics and maintenance, further solidifying the sector's growth trajectory.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For investors, the defense sector presents a compelling case study in balancing political risk with strategic opportunity. Key considerations include:
1. Valuation Metrics: Defense stocks remain largely fairly valued, with EBITDA multiples appreciating by 9.7% in 2025 due to rising demand for advanced technologies. However, regulatory pressures could introduce short-term volatility.
2. Geopolitical Catalysts: Ongoing tensions with China and military operations in regions like Venezuela justify sustained spending, creating a tailwind for contractors with expertise in next-gen systems.
3. Policy Risks: The success of Trump's budget and executive orders depends on congressional cooperation. A fragmented legislative process could delay funding, impacting contractor revenue streams.

Conclusion

The defense sector in 2025 is at a crossroads, shaped by the interplay of executive authority and congressional deliberation. While Trump's aggressive spending agenda and regulatory interventions introduce near-term uncertainties, the sector's long-term fundamentals remain robust. Investors who navigate these dynamics with a focus on innovation-driven firms and geopolitical trends may find the defense sector to be a resilient and rewarding asset class in the years ahead.