Descifrando el mercado laboral para el año 2025: Un desaceleración estructural, no una recesión.

The U.S. labor market concluded 2025 on a note of profound stagnation. In December, employers added just 50,000 jobs, a figure that fell short of expectations and marked a continuation of a year-long slowdown. At the same time, the unemployment rate held at 4.4%, a level that, while not alarming, masks a labor force that has barely expanded. This tepid monthly pace culminated in a full-year total of 584,000 jobs-its weakest annual pace since the pandemic-driven collapse of 2020 and the second weakest since the global financial crisis.

The scale of the deceleration is stark. The average monthly gain for 2025 came in at just 49,000, a dramatic drop from the 168,000 monthly average seen in 2024. More than 84% of the year's meager gains occurred in the first four months, after which hiring essentially ground to a halt. This wasn't a smooth cooling but a sharp, almost abrupt, cessation of momentum. The data also points to a fragile foundation, with significant downward benchmark revisions expected for prior months, suggesting the headline numbers may yet be revised lower.

The result is a labor market in a holding pattern. While the unemployment rate remains stable and mass layoffs have not materialized, the engine of job creation has stalled. This sets up the central question for the coming year: is this a cyclical dip, a temporary pause in the recovery, or a sign of a deeper, more persistent structural shift? The evidence points to a market that has simply stopped growing.

The Anatomy of the Slowdown: Cooling Demand and Supply

The weak job growth of 2025 was not a uniform cooling but a sectoral realignment driven by distinct forces on both the demand and supply sides of the labor market. On the demand side, hiring was concentrated in industries like health care and leisure/hospitality, which are more resilient to economic cycles. In stark contrast, traditional engines of manufacturing and retail cut jobs, with factories shedding 8,000 workers in December and the broader retail sector reporting losses. This divergence points to a demand environment where consumer spending has shifted toward services but is insufficient to support broad-based expansion in goods-producing industries.

A key signal of this cooling demand is the falling job vacancy rate, which has now settled at 4.6%. This metric is critical because it sits at the heart of the Beveridge curve-a model that plots the relationship between job openings and unemployment. As the vacancy rate has declined from its pandemic-era peaks, the curve suggests the labor market is moving toward a point where a relatively small increase in layoffs could trigger a sharp rise in unemployment. The model, highlighted by economists, indicates that conditions are ripe for this deterioration, raising the specter of a more abrupt downturn than the current holding pattern suggests.

Simultaneously, labor supply is cooling, adding another layer of constraint. A major factor is the immigration crackdown, which has slowed population growth and the entry of new workers into the workforce. This supply-side headwind is occurring alongside the demand-side slowdown. The result is a labor market where the engine of job creation has stalled, but the pool of available workers is also shrinking. This dynamic may prevent the kind of sharp, recessionary spiral seen in past downturns, as there is less pressure on employers to cut payrolls aggressively when they already face hiring difficulties. Yet it also means the economy lacks the momentum to generate robust, broad-based employment growth, locking it into a period of structural stagnation.

Financial and Policy Implications

The anemic job growth of 2025 has profound implications for corporate profitability, consumer spending, and the Federal Reserve's policy path. The disconnect between weak hiring and steady GDP growth is the defining feature of this cycle. While the private sector added a mere 37,000 jobs for the year, the economy still expanded at a robust pace, with annual growth of 4.3% through September. This suggests that productivity gains and capital investment are more than offsetting the lack of new labor. For corporate America, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it allows firms to maintain or even improve margins without the cost of new hires. On the other, it signals a labor market that is not fueling broad-based wage growth or consumer demand expansion, which could limit the sustainability of the consumption-driven growth model.

For the Federal Reserve, the weak jobs report provides a clear anchor for its policy stance. The central bank has already cut its key lending rate three times since September, a move that was supported by the cooling labor market. The latest data reinforces the case for a pause. With the unemployment rate stable and no evidence of a looming recession, the Fed can afford to wait and see. Market pricing now reflects this, with the next potential rate cut not expected until June. The low-hire, low-fire environment the Fed has helped engineer appears to be holding, but its long-term sustainability in a growing economy is questionable.

The real risk lies in economic dynamism. A labor market that is neither hiring nor firing aggressively creates a stagnant equilibrium. It may prevent a sharp downturn, but it also stifles the kind of creative destruction and wage growth that drive innovation and living standards. The cooling demand for workers, as seen in manufacturing and retail, suggests businesses are not confident enough in future growth to expand payrolls. This caution, while prudent for individual firms, aggregates into a broader vulnerability. If the underlying drivers of GDP growth-consumer spending and exports-were to falter, the lack of a large pool of unemployed workers to absorb a shock would make the economy less resilient. The setup is one of fragile stability, where the absence of a recession is not a sign of strength, but of a market that has simply stopped growing.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch in 2026

The thesis of a structural slowdown hinges on the labor market's trajectory in the coming months. The key signals to monitor are the job vacancy rate and the Beveridge curve, which together will indicate whether the current holding pattern is stable or poised for an inflection. The vacancy rate has now settled at 4.6%, a level that, according to the Beveridge curve model, suggests the labor market is in a precarious position. The model, highlighted by economists, indicates that conditions are ripe for unemployment to trend upward sharply if layoffs were to increase. This is the central risk: a market that has cooled to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium could quickly deteriorate if economic pressures force employers to cut payrolls.

A critical data point to watch is the February Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark revisions. These adjustments, which account for firm births, deaths, and other data collection gaps, are due to be released and could further refine the picture of 2025's anemic performance. The initial data already showed significant downward revisions for October and November, subtracting 76,000 jobs from prior totals. More revisions are expected, which will provide a clearer understanding of the depth of the slowdown and the dynamics of firm failures throughout the year. This data will help confirm whether the weak job growth was a broad-based trend or concentrated in specific sectors.

The ultimate test for the structural slowdown thesis is whether this cooling labor market translates into moderating wage pressures and inflation. The current setup-where productivity gains are offsetting weak hiring-allows corporate margins to hold but does little to fuel broad-based consumer demand. If wage growth remains subdued, it would support the Fed's case for a pause in its easing cycle. However, if the labor market were to deteriorate rapidly, it could still trigger a spike in unemployment that would dampen consumer spending and potentially force a reassessment of the economic outlook. For now, the low-hire, low-fire environment appears intact, but its long-term sustainability in a growing economy is questionable. The coming months will reveal whether this is a period of fragile stability or the calm before a storm.