Dayforce Shares Jump 24% on Reports of Thoma Bravo Buyout Talks

Dayforce Inc. (NYSE: DAY) shares surged more than 24% in premarket trading on August 18, 2025, as reports emerged that Thoma Bravo, a leading private equity firm, is in advanced talks to take the company private [1]. The stock opened at $65.75, a significant jump from its closing price of $52.88 the prior session, signaling strong investor enthusiasm for the potential acquisition [1]. The move pushed Dayforce’s market capitalization to approximately $8.4 billion, with some estimates placing the deal value around $9 billion [2].

The reported buyout discussions mark a turning point for Dayforce, which has struggled with declining investor confidence in recent months. Over the past 12 months, the stock had fallen roughly 5%, while year-to-date losses exceeded 27%, lagging behind the S&P 500’s positive returns [1]. Thoma Bravo’s interest comes amid a broader trend of private equity activity in the software sector, where firms are increasingly targeting undervalued public companies with strong recurring revenue models and growth potential [3]. The firm, known for its expertise in software acquisitions, has made several high-profile deals in 2025, including the acquisition of Olo and Boeing’s flight navigation unit [4].

Analysts have noted that Dayforce’s financial profile makes it an attractive target for a leveraged buyout. The company reported $1.85 billion in revenue and maintains a 2.65% profit margin, with $625.2 million in cash on hand and an enterprise value of $9.05 billion [1]. Its levered free cash flow of $278.8 million and a debt-to-equity ratio of 45.49% further support its ability to support a capital-intensive transaction [5]. The company’s human capital management platform, which benefits from growing AI adoption in areas like recruitment and payroll, positions it well for long-term growth under private ownership [6].

The premarket rally brought Dayforce’s stock closer to analyst price targets, which range from $47.00 to $95.00, with an average of $66.87 [1]. This suggests that the anticipated acquisition premium, while significant, may not fully capture the stock’s upside potential in the eyes of some analysts. Jefferies Financial Group has highlighted the company’s underperformance relative to peers as a key factor driving the likelihood of a sale [8]. While no official offer has been made, Bloomberg sources indicated that the deal could be announced within weeks, though it remains subject to potential delays or even a breakdown [7].

The potential acquisition reflects broader market dynamics, including the volatility in enterprise software stocks and the appeal of private ownership structures for driving efficiency and value creation. As Thoma Bravo moves forward with its negotiations, investors will be closely watching for any updates that may confirm or refute the speculation.

Sources:

[1] https://tokenist.com/why-did-dayforces-stock-skyrocket-in-premarket-trading/

[2] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/thoma-bravo-eyes-acquisition-hr-software-firm-dayforce-report

[3] https://www.tipranks.com/news/ma-news-dayforce-stock-day-cheered-to-the-rafters-as-pe-group-thoma-bravo-lines-up-bid