Dayforce Soars 27% on Private Equity Acquisition Rumors: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Dayforce (DAY) surges 27.17% intraday to $67.25 amid reports of Thoma Bravo acquisition talks.
• Analysts highlight undervaluation and improving fundamentals as potential drivers.
• Technical indicators show short-term bullish momentum but long-term bearish trends.

Dayforce’s stock has erupted on news of a potential private equity buyout, with shares trading at a 27% premium to Friday’s close. The surge follows Bloomberg and MarketWatch reports of Thoma Bravo negotiations, reigniting investor optimism after years of underperformance. Intraday volatility has pushed the stock to a 52-week high of $67.76, though it remains 52% below its 2022 peak.

Private Equity Acquisition Sparks Dayforce's Volatile Surge
The explosive move in Dayforce shares stems from Bloomberg and MarketWatch reports that Thoma Bravo is in advanced talks to take the HCM software provider private. This follows years of stagnant performance, with the stock down 27% in 2025 despite strong fundamentals. Analysts like TD Cowen’s Jared Levine and BMO’s Daniel Jester argue the stock has been undervalued due to market skepticism about post-COVID growth. The potential deal, valued at ~$8.4 billion, could unlock value for shareholders by removing public market pressures. Thoma Bravo’s prior $8 billion acquisition of Coupa—a Dayforce co-founder’s former company—adds credibility to the buyout narrative.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in Dayforce’s Bullish Breakout
• 200-day average: 63.50 (below current price); RSI: 29.09 (oversold); MACD: -1.38 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 67.25 vs. upper band 62.14 (overextended)
• Key support/resistance: 53.35–57.77 (30D/200D)

Dayforce’s technical profile suggests a short-term overbought condition, but the acquisition rumor has created a liquidity vacuum. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

• DAY20250919C70 (Call, $70 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 42.63% (moderate)
- Leverage ratio: 30.86% (high)
- Delta: 0.3867 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0805 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0448 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 119,398 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $1.37/share (70% gain).
This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5–7 day holding period if the acquisition rumor gains traction.

• DAY20250919C65 (Call, $65 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 47.00% (high)
- Leverage ratio: 14.09% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.6086 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1018 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0408 (moderate responsiveness)
- Turnover: 90,901 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $2.38/share (349% gain).
This option offers higher upside potential but requires tighter timing due to its high theta decay.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize DAY20250919C65 for a 5–7 day window, while DAY20250919C70 serves as a safer, longer-term play. Both benefit from the stock’s current overbought condition and the potential for a liquidity-driven rally.

Backtest Dayforce Stock Performance
The backtest of a 27% intraday surge on the next day's performance shows no impact on the entire market, with the maximum return being 0.46% on day 49. This suggests that such a significant intraday surge does not consistently translate into substantial gains the following day.

Dayforce’s Acquisition Drama: Time to Ride the Volatility or Exit Before the Crash?
Dayforce’s 27% intraday surge hinges on the credibility of the Thoma Bravo acquisition rumor and its ability to sustain momentum above $65. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, the stock’s historical underperformance and sector peers’ muted response (e.g., ADP up 0.4%) imply caution. Investors should monitor the $65–$70 range for confirmation of a breakout or breakdown. If the stock closes above $67.76 (intraday high), DAY20250919C65 could deliver outsized returns. Conversely, a pullback below $64.73 (intraday low) would invalidate the bullish case. Watch for ADP’s 0.4% gain to signal sector-wide optimism.