DAX's Technical Reversal and Path to Reclaiming All-Time Highs: A Deep Dive into Corrective Wave Analysis and Bullish Breakout Confirmation

The DAX index, Germany's benchmark equity benchmark, has recently exhibited a compelling technical reversal from a critical support level, sparking renewed optimism among analysts about its potential to reclaim all-time highs. As the index navigates a complex interplay of corrective wave patterns and bullish breakout signals, investors are closely monitoring key technical levels and broader market dynamics to assess the trajectory of this European blue-chip index.

Technical Reversal and Immediate Support/Resistance Dynamics

On 12 November 2025, the DAX reversed sharply from a pivotal support level at 23,500.00, a level coinciding with the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Band and a bullish Hammer candlestick pattern. This reversal marked a critical inflection point, suggesting the resumption of a daily uptrend that had previously stalled. Analysts highlight that the Hammer pattern-a classic reversal signal-combined with the index's proximity to the Bollinger Band's lower boundary, reinforces the likelihood of a continuation of the upward bias.

The immediate resistance target for this bullish move is 24,695.00, a level that aligns with the DAX's historical all-time high of 24,771.34 recorded in October 2025. While the index closed at 24,229.91 on 15 December 2025, a slight pullback from its November peak of 24,381.46, the technical setup remains robust. A successful break above 24,695.00 could trigger a retest of the October high, potentially solidifying a new all-time closing level.

Elliott Wave Analysis: Navigating the Final Leg of a Five-Wave Structure

From a broader Elliott Wave perspective, the DAX appears to be nearing completion of a five-wave diagonal formation that began with a low in April 2025. This structure includes a strong impulsive wave 3 and a corrective wave 4, with the index currently in the final wave 5 phase. Analysts argue that this final leg could extend beyond the 24,695.00 level, particularly if institutional buying interest intensifies at key pivot points.

A critical pivot to watch is 23,682.73, a level where historical buying pressure has been observed. A pullback to this area could attract long-term investors, providing a catalyst for a renewed upward thrust. However, a breakdown below 23,500.00 would invalidate the bullish case, potentially triggering a corrective phase targeting 23,400 or even 21,250 in a worst-case scenario.

Bullish Breakout Confirmation and Short-Term Targets

Recent 4-hour chart analysis has identified a breakout above the 200-day moving average, a key technical milestone that often precedes sustained bullish momentum. This breakout, coupled with the index's current positioning within a descending channel, suggests a high probability of a bullish leg targeting 24,300 in the near term.

Notably, the DAX's performance is also influenced by global equity dynamics, particularly the S&P 500's momentum, and domestic factors such as the strong Euro. While a divergence between global and local fundamentals could temporarily pressure the index, the broader technical and fundamental backdrop remains constructive for a retest of all-time highs.

Conclusion: A Calculated Path to Reclaiming All-Time Highs

The DAX's technical reversal and Elliott Wave structure present a compelling case for a bullish breakout, provided key support levels hold and institutional participation remains robust. While short-term volatility and bearish risks persist-particularly if the index fails to sustain above 24,695.00-investors with a medium-term horizon may find the current setup attractive. The path to reclaiming the October 2025 high is not without challenges, but the confluence of technical indicators, historical price action, and macroeconomic context suggests that the DAX is poised for a significant upward move.