David Ellison's Paramount Gambles Big on WBD — Here's What the Numbers Reveal

The streaming wars are entering a new phase — and David Ellison's Paramount is making a bold move to reshape the entertainment landscape. With a $30-per-share, all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), the move could be a game-changer in media consolidation. But it's not the only bid on the table — and the regulatory hurdles, financial mechanics, and market reactions tell a story of both ambition and risk. For investors, this is a pivotal moment that could define the future of content creation and digital distribution for years to come.

The David Ellison-Backed Tender Offer for Warner Bros. Discovery

Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PSKY), backed by David Ellison's financial firepower and strategic vision, has launched a $30-per-share all-cash tender offer for WBD — valued at a total of $108.4 billion. That's a 139% premium over WBD's undisturbed share price of $12.54 on September 10, 2025 according to the report. The offer is a direct counter to Netflix's $72–82 billion bid according to industry analysis, and it's backed by a massive $54 billion in debt commitments from major banks and investment groups like Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo. The Ellison family and RedBird are providing the equity backstop.

The offer expires on January 8, 2026, giving investors and regulators time to assess the implications. But this isn't just about price — it's about control. Paramount's all-cash structure makes it more attractive to WBD shareholders, particularly as it offers $18 billion more liquidity than the Netflix deal. That could be a decisive factor if WBD shareholders prioritize immediate cash returns over long-term strategic synergies.

Paramount's Strategic Moves: Pricing, Growth, and Content

While the WBD acquisition grabs headlines, Paramount isn't resting on its heels. The company is set to raise U.S. Paramount+ subscription prices in January 2026, continuing a trend it has already executed in Canada and Australia. These price hikes are part of a broader strategy to fund over $1.5 billion in content investments in 2026 — a key area where Paramount is aiming to strengthen its position.

The investments span direct-to-consumer (DTC) content including the UFC, new Paramount+ originals, and third-party licensing. As of September 2025, Paramount+ had 79.1 million subscribers, with 1.2 million on free trials — a solid base but one that must be nurtured to stay competitive. These moves highlight Paramount's intent to invest not just in scale, but in content depth, to keep its platform relevant in a crowded market.

The Netflix WBD Deal: A Contested Alternative

Netflix's competing bid for WBD has not gone unchallenged. While the company has proposed an $82.7 billion deal (including $11 billion in debt), it has faced strong pushback from Hollywood unions, political figures, and even parts of the movie theater industry. Critics argue the deal could reduce consumer choice and create antitrust concerns according to industry experts. U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar have spoken out against it, as has the Writers Guild of America according to media reports.

The European Union and the U.S. Department of Justice are expected to scrutinize the transaction closely — and for good reason. A Netflix-WBD merger would create a dominant force in content production and streaming, potentially altering the competitive landscape for years. Netflix's co-CEO, Greg Peters, has called the deal a "decades-long investment", but the path to regulatory approval appears anything but smooth.

What This Means for Investors and the Market

For investors, the key question is who will end up controlling WBD — and what that means for the future of media. Paramount's all-cash offer could close faster than Netflix's regulatory-heavy path, giving it a potential advantage. But it also comes with higher upfront costs and debt load. The $54 billion in debt commitments are significant, and the success of this deal will depend on Paramount's ability to integrate WBD's assets and deliver value post-merger.

On the other hand, Netflix's deal brings long-term content access and AI infrastructure, with analysts noting the strategic value of WBD's assets in training AI models. The company also projects $5.5 billion in cost efficiencies. That could be a compelling argument for long-term investors who believe in the power of AI to reshape media consumption.

Still, the risks for both bidders are real. For Paramount, the debt load could weigh on its balance sheet. For Netflix, the regulatory roadblock remains a major red flag. Either way, the outcome of these bids will send ripples through the entire entertainment sector — affecting everything from content licensing to streaming pricing to the balance of power between Hollywood and tech.

Looking Ahead: A Complex Path to Consolidation

As the clock ticks down on the January 8, 2026 deadline for Paramount's offer, the market is watching closely. WBD's board will need to weigh not just the cash value, but the strategic and regulatory risks associated with each bid. Shareholders, meanwhile, will be looking for clarity on the best path forward — one that balances immediate returns with long-term value.

What's clear is that the entertainment industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Whether it's through Ellison's aggressive bid or Netflix's tech-driven approach, consolidation is accelerating — and the winners and losers will be determined not just by price, but by execution, regulatory outcomes, and consumer response.

For now, investors have a rare front-row seat to a blockbuster deal — and the results could reshape the media landscape for years to come.