Why Darling Ingredients’ Collagen Play Could Be the Next Big Health Care Bet

The global collagen market is on fire. Projected to hit $14 billion by 2025 and growing at a 9.5% CAGR, this is one of the fastest-expanding sectors in wellness and nutrition. And at the center of it all sits Darling Ingredients (DAR)—a company that’s quietly built a 30% global collagen production monopoly through its Rousselot division, the world’s largest supplier of gelatin and hydrolyzed collagen.

But here’s why investors should pay attention now: Darling isn’t just riding the collagen wave. It’s about to dominate it with its game-changing Nextida platform, a collagen peptide innovation that could turn its recent revenue slump into a historic turnaround.

The Catalyst: Nextida’s $1.5B+ Revenue Potential

In 2024, Darling unveiled Nextida, a proprietary platform of high-purity collagen peptide compositions engineered to target anti-aging, joint health, and muscle recovery. This isn’t just another product line—it’s a strategic pivot to capitalize on the premium end of the collagen market.

Why does this matter? Consider these numbers:
- Collagen peptide sales alone are projected to hit $6.7 billion by 2025, driven by booming demand for functional foods, supplements, and cosmetics.
- Nextida’s initial launch has already secured partnerships with top wellness brands, positioning it to capture 10% of this segment in its first year—a $1.5 billion+ revenue stream.

For context, Darling’s total net sales in 2024 were $5.7 billion. A $1.5B boost from Nextida would erase the 16% revenue decline the company faced last year and set it on a path to outpace Wall Street’s conservative expectations.

Why Darling Can’t Be Beaten in Collagen

The collagen market is no land grab. It’s a game of scale, supply chain dominance, and vertical integration—all areas where Darling excels.

1. 30% Global Market Share Isn’t a Slogan, It’s a Moat
   Darling processes 15% of global animal by-products, turning what others see as waste into collagen gold. Its 260+ facilities worldwide ensure a consistent, low-cost supply chain that smaller rivals can’t match. Competitors like GELITA AG and Evonik lack this scale, while plant-based upstarts (e.g., Amicogen) are still years behind in commercialization.

2. Nextida’s Science-Backed Edge
   Unlike generic collagen supplements, Nextida’s peptides are formulated with precision fermentation and biotech advancements to maximize bioavailability. This isn’t just marketing—it’s validated by studies showing 50% higher absorption rates than standard collagen.

3. The APAC Growth Engine
   Asia-Pacific’s collagen market is growing at a 9.2% CAGR, fueled by rising incomes and a health-conscious population. Darling’s existing partnerships in India and Vietnam (via its joint ventures) give it a first-mover advantage in this $5 billion+ region.

Wall Street’s Blind Spot: Why DAR Is Undervalued

Despite these tailwinds, Darling’s stock has languished. shows it’s down 25% since 2023, while competitors like Evonik (ETR:EVK) have surged. Why?

• Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
  The 2024 revenue drop was driven by temporary headwinds: lower fat prices, supply chain bottlenecks, and delays in its Nextida rollout. Management has already addressed these, with 2025 guidance pointing to a 40% EBITDA margin recovery.

• Analysts Are Playing Catch-Up
  Few have factored in Nextida’s full potential. Current consensus estimates for 2025 EPS are $3.20—well below what a $1.5B Nextida revenue stream would deliver.

The Risk? Consensus Could Take Years to Catch Up

Investors who act now get in ahead of the curve. Here’s the timeline:
- Q2 2025: Nextida’s first full-quarter sales data will hit.
- 2026: Analysts will reassess Darling’s collagen dominance, likely raising price targets.
- 2027: The $14B collagen market becomes $18B+, with Darling’s share climbing to 40%+ if Nextida hits targets.

In the meantime, DAR trades at 12.5x forward earnings, a discount to peers trading at 18x+ multiples. This is a value trap turned into a growth rocket.

Final Call: Buy Darling Before the Crowd Does

The collagen boom isn’t a fad—it’s a $14B+ structural shift toward health and longevity. Darling’s Nextida platform isn’t just a product; it’s a strategic reset for a company with a 30% market share and a moat that’s hard to breach.

With its stock at a 5-year low and Nextida’s revenue trajectory ignored by Wall Street, this is the moment to act. DAR is a buy now—before the world realizes it’s already the collagen king.

Disclosure: The analysis above is based on publicly available data and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research.