Daqo New Energy Surges 13.18% on Buyback and Analyst Upgrades—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Daqo New Energy (DQ) surges 13.18% intraday, trading at $28.17 amid a $100M buyback and analyst upgrades.
• The stock hits a 52-week high of $30.85, with a dynamic P/E of -6.37 and a 3.58% turnover rate.
• Analysts split between 'Strong Buy' and 'Sell' ratings, with a $25.84 average price target.

Daqo New Energy’s stock is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, surging 13.18% to $28.17 as of 7:03 PM ET. The move follows a $100 million share repurchase program and a flurry of analyst upgrades, including a 'Buy' from HSBC and Hsbc Global Res. With the stock trading near its 52-week high, investors are weighing the impact of management’s confidence in undervaluation against ongoing sector headwinds like overcapacity and weak margins.

Buyback and Analyst Optimism Ignite Short-Term Bullish Momentum
Daqo New Energy’s 13.18% intraday surge is directly tied to its $100 million share repurchase program, announced on August 26, and a wave of analyst upgrades. The buyback, valid through December 2026, signals management’s belief in the stock’s undervaluation despite Q2 losses of $76.48 million and revenue of $75.19 million, which fell short of estimates. Analysts, including HSBC and Hsbc Global Res, have upgraded the stock to 'Buy' and 'Strong-Buy,' citing potential recovery in polysilicon pricing and industry stabilization. The rally also coincides with a 74% drop in trading volume compared to its average, suggesting a consolidation phase before a breakout.

Solar Sector Volatility Intensifies as First Solar Gains 3.05%
The Solar & Alternative Energy sector is experiencing mixed signals, with First Solar (FSLR) rising 3.05% on strong Q2 guidance and a bullish earnings report. Daqo’s 13.18% surge outpaces the sector’s average but reflects broader uncertainty due to overcapacity and margin pressures. While First Solar benefits from higher utilization rates and stronger pricing power, Daqo’s rally hinges on its buyback and analyst optimism, highlighting divergent strategies within the sector.

Options and ETF Plays for Daqo’s Volatile Rally
• MACD: 0.89 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.20)
• RSI: 43.36 (oversold territory, suggesting potential rebound)
• Bollinger Bands: $22.95–$29.48 (current price near upper band, indicating overbought conditions)
• 200-day MA: $18.82 (price at 49.7% above, signaling long-term divergence)

Daqo’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition but a long-term bullish trend. Key support levels at $22.95 and $26.21, and resistance at $29.48, define a volatile trading range. The stock’s 13.18% surge has pushed it near its 52-week high of $30.85, with the RSI in oversold territory hinting at potential continuation. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA ($18.82) as a critical long-term benchmark.

Top Options Picks:
• DQ20251003C28 (Call, $28 strike, 2025-10-03):
- IV: 49.77% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 26.63% (high)
- Delta: 0.56 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1068 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1695 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 313 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($29.58): $1.58 per contract. This call offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a short-term bullish breakout.

• DQ20251010C30 (Call, $30 strike, 2025-10-10):
- IV: 77.46% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 23.53% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.39 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0775 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0815 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 2,715 (highly liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($29.58): $0.58 per contract. This option balances volatility and liquidity, suitable for a mid-term hold.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should target DQ20251003C28 for a breakout above $29.48, while conservative traders may use DQ20251010C30 for a measured rally. Watch for a breakdown below $26.21 to trigger short-side plays.

Backtest Daqo New Energy Stock Performance
Here is the completed event-study back-test of DQ (Daqo New Energy, ticker DQ.N) following every ≥ 13 % single-day price surge since 1 Jan 2022.Key take-aways• Number of qualified events: 8 • Average cumulative return 30 trading-days after the surge: -7.07 % (vs. S&P 500 -proxy -0.44 %) • Win-rate never exceeds 62.5 % on any day in the 30-day window; the median path trends lower after day 4. • No statistically significant positive edge was detected—large one-day jumps have, on average, faded rather than continued.Automatically-filled parameters1. Data source: daily close-to-close percent change (“daily_return_pct”)—chosen because it directly captures single-session price swings. 2. Surge threshold: 13 % exactly as requested. 3. Test window: ±30 trading days around each event (industry standard for short-term event studies). 4. Price series used for P&L computation: close price. 5. Analysis period: 2022-01-01 → 2025-09-24, the latest available trading day today.Interactive resultsThe full visual report (cumulative P&L curve, distribution metrics and per-day win-rate) can be opened through the module below.Please open the module to explore the full event-study charts, cumulative return curves and statistical tables.

Daqo’s Rally Hinges on Buyback Confidence—Act Fast on Key Levels
Daqo New Energy’s 13.18% surge is a short-term win driven by its $100M buyback and analyst optimism, but long-term sustainability depends on industry stabilization and margin recovery. Traders should monitor the $29.48 upper Bollinger Band and $26.21 support level for directional clues. Meanwhile, First Solar’s 3.05% gain underscores sector volatility, with Daqo’s aggressive buyback signaling a high-risk, high-reward trade. For immediate action, target DQ20251003C28 if $29.48 breaks, or DQ20251010C30 for a measured rally. Watch for a breakdown below $26.21 to pivot to defensive plays.