DAIJPY Market Overview: Mixed Momentum Amid Tight Ranges

• DAIJPY edged lower in 24 hours, closing near session lows amid muted volume.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 147.75, suggesting potential bearish bias.
• Momentum softened through RSI and MACD, with RSI approaching oversold territory.
• Volatility remained tight within Bollinger Bands, showing no sign of a breakout.
• Notional turnover surged in the late night, indicating possible accumulation or distribution.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 147.91 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 147.91, and a low of 147.64 before closing at 147.86 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour trading volume reached 31,578.9 units, with notional turnover at $4,643,142.

Structure & Formations

Price consolidated within a narrow range around 147.70–147.90 for most of the session, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming near 147.75 after a brief rally. This pattern, combined with the failure to reclaim 147.85, suggests a short-term bearish bias. A doji appeared near 147.75, indicating indecision after a sharp move lower. Resistance is likely at 147.85–147.91, while support holds at 147.64–147.68.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging, with price hovering just above the 50MA. On a daily timeframe, the 50-day and 100-day MAs are closely aligned, and the 200-day MA remains a key long-term support at ~147.40. Price is currently in a consolidative phase, with no clear directional bias from the MAs.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line in the early morning, indicating bearish momentum, though the histogram remains flat, suggesting fading strength. RSI dipped to 34 in the late evening, nearing oversold territory but without a strong rebound. This combination implies that while downward momentum is present, a bounce from current levels is increasingly likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remains low, with price confined within the Bollinger Band range for most of the day. The bands are contracting, which historically precedes a breakout or sharp move. Price is currently near the lower band, which could act as a short-term support level if the trend continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively low throughout most of the day, with a notable spike in the early morning and late night. The largest volume surge occurred at 03:30 ET, where a large candle moved price from 147.75 to 147.77. Notional turnover increased correspondingly during this time, indicating potential accumulation or distribution. Price and turnover moved in line during this phase, adding credibility to the directional move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 147.64 to 147.91, key levels at 147.79 (38.2%) and 147.73 (61.8%) were tested. Price found temporary support at both levels, with the 61.8% level currently under pressure. If this level fails, the next significant target is the 78.6% retracement at ~147.69, which coincides with recent lows.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a mean-reversion approach based on Bollinger Band contractions and RSI readings. When the price touches the lower Bollinger Band and RSI falls below 30, a long entry is triggered, with a stop just below the recent low and a target at the 50-period moving average. Given the current setup with contracting bands and RSI near oversold, this strategy could offer a viable short-term trade. However, the recent bearish engulfing pattern and weak volume raise caution about immediate reversals.