DAIJPY Market Overview for 2025-11-05

Summary
• DAIJPY opened at 153.65 and closed at 154.05 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price surged over 0.40 Yen, with a high of 154.21 and low of 153.25.
• High turnover of $38194.95 and volume of 219,124.95 DAI highlight strong interest.

DAIJPY opened at 153.65 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 154.05 at the same time on 2025-11-05. During the 24-hour period, it reached a high of 154.21 and a low of 153.25. Total volume traded was 219,124.95 DAI, while notional turnover amounted to $38194.95, indicating heightened market activity and liquidity. The price trend showed a clear upward bias in the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a notable bullish engulfing pattern during the early morning session, with the candle opening at 153.85 and closing at 153.91. A bearish harami pattern appeared around 05:45 ET, indicating some short-term indecision. Key support levels appear to be forming around 153.68–153.72, with resistance seen at 154.05–154.14. A break above 154.21 could confirm a stronger rally, while a return to 153.35 raises the risk of further consolidation or pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above the price near 04:00 ET, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic support during the early morning session. On the daily chart, DAIJPY closed above the 50-period MA for the first time in several days, hinting at the potential start of a new uptrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish in the late evening and early morning hours, with positive divergence indicating growing momentum. RSI-14 reached overbought territory at 70.5 near 06:45 ET, suggesting a potential near-term correction. However, the price continued to rise, indicating strong conviction among buyers. Traders should monitor the RSI closely for a pullback below 50 as a bearish sign.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the late-night to early-morning hours, with price frequently touching the upper Bollinger Band, which sat near 154.10–154.20. A contraction in the bands is expected in the near term, potentially leading to a breakout or continuation. Price has remained above the 153.70 midline, suggesting buyers have maintained control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning hours, particularly between 04:15 ET and 06:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp price rise. Turnover spiked above $15,000 during this period, confirming the strength of the upward move. Divergence between volume and price was minimal, supporting the likelihood that the current trend is backed by substantial buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing low at 153.25 and the swing high at 154.21, DAIJPY found strong support at the 38.2% level (~153.76) and resistance at the 61.8% level (~153.98). Price closed just below the 61.8% level at 153.91, suggesting a potential test of this area in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on using RSI-14 as an overbought signal (≥ 70), with an exit rule of flat positions after 5 trading days. During this 24-hour period, RSI reached overbought levels on two occasions, most notably around 06:45 ET. A hypothetical long entry would have been triggered near 153.85, with an exit around 154.05, yielding a modest gain. However, the strategy would have also incurred a short-term loss had it entered at the prior overbought peak. While the current RSI level is near overbought, the sustained upward move suggests traders may want to consider tighter risk controls or dynamic exits for future applications.