Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) Market Overview

Summary• Price declined 0.68% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.4728.• RSI approached overbought territory during a mid-day rally but reversed lower.• Volatility remains high, with Bollinger Band width expanding mid-session.• A strong bearish divergence between price and volume emerged in late afternoon.• Momentum shifted back to sellers after a failed retest of the 0.478–0.480 resistance range.

The Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) pair opened at 0.4725 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.4843 before closing at 0.4728 on 2025-11-09 at the same time. The total 24-hour trading volume was approximately 24,135,240.0 and notional turnover reached about 11,134,346.6 U.S. dollars.

Structure & Formations

CRVUSDT tested key resistance at 0.478–0.480, but failed to hold, suggesting bearish bias. A large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 21:45 ET confirmed the breakdown. Earlier, a bullish engulfing pattern formed around 21:30 ET, but this failed to hold, indicating potential exhaustion in the buyers. Support levels at 0.465 and 0.470 appear critical, with price consolidating around 0.470 in the last four hours.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are converging, with price now below both, signaling a short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day MA cluster remains above current levels, hinting at a potential divergence if price fails to reclaim this area.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in late afternoon and remains in negative territory. The RSI peaked at 68.4 during the mid-day rally before dropping sharply to 49.1 by the close, suggesting moderate oversold conditions but not extreme enough for a reversal. The divergence between RSI and price is a growing concern for bulls.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked after midday, as reflected in the expanding Bollinger Bands. Price traded near the upper band earlier in the session but has since retracted toward the lower band, now hovering near the lower 2σ level. This suggests a possible reversion to the mean if volume increases at key support.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked at 1.74 million around 16:30 ET as price tested the 0.478 resistance. However, volume dropped sharply during the breakdown, indicating weak conviction in the bearish move. Turnover also declined, showing price declines lacked strong follow-through. A divergence between volume and price may signal an impending reversal or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the recent 15-minute swing show 0.470 (61.8%) and 0.465 (78.6%) as critical support. A bounce from these levels would suggest a potential countertrend move back toward 0.475–0.478. On the daily chart, the 0.470–0.475 range is a key area of interest for Fibonacci retracement buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “RSI Overbought 14-day Hold” strategy shows an intriguing performance profile, with a cumulative return of approximately 354.6% and annualized return of 40.3% over the backtest period. Despite its high drawdown of 52.4%, the strategy's positive average trade return and Sharpe ratio of 0.77 suggest it could be viable for risk-managed traders. This aligns with recent CRVUSDT behavior, where overbought RSI levels often preceded extended bullish phases. However, the current context shows mixed momentum and lower conviction in bearish moves, so caution is warranted before applying this strategy without enhancements such as stop-loss rules.