Why Crypto-Treasury Stocks Fall Faster Than the Assets They Hold

Bitcoin steadied at $93,576.7 on January 6, 2026, as renewed concerns over treasury companies stalled its advance. The broader crypto market saw gains, but crypto-related stocks outperformed the underlying assets in 2025. This trend highlights the growing disconnect between crypto treasuries and their stock counterparts.

The U.S. market has been shaped by both geopolitical and economic developments. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the anticipation of regulatory clarity are among the factors influencing investor sentiment. Bitcoin's price movement remains a focal point as markets await new developments.

Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reported an unrealized loss of $17.44 billion in Q4 2025, driven by Bitcoin's price decline. The company's shares fell nearly 50% in 2025 amid skepticism about its long-term crypto hoarding strategy. This underscores the vulnerability of crypto-related stocks during market downturns.

Why Did This Happen?

According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bitcoin may have bottomed in 2025, with a price target of $150,000 for 2026. The firm expects a broader tokenization cycle to emerge as a key driver, with stablecoin supply projected to rise 56% to $420 billion. This shift could benefit companies involved in payment and fintech use cases.

Crypto-related stocks, such as Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN), saw significant gains in 2025 despite Bitcoin's 6% pullback. This divergence suggests that equities are more sensitive to investor sentiment and regulatory developments than the underlying crypto assets.

How Did Markets React?

The performance of crypto stocks has been marked by volatility. Hyperscale Data, for example, reported a Bitcoin treasury valued at approximately $80.2 million as of January 4, 2026, with its holdings reaching 102% of its market capitalization. The firm aims to expand its Bitcoin holdings to $100 million as part of its Digital Asset Treasury strategy.

In contrast, Bitcoin's price remained below $100,000 in early 2026, trading at $94,122. This is more than 25% below its 2025 peak. The continued underperformance of crypto assets compared to their stocks highlights the risks of investing in equities tied to digital assets.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

According to Bernstein, the firm anticipates the rise of tokenized assets, expecting the total value locked in tokenized real-world assets to jump from $37 billion to $80 billion in 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by banks launching proprietary tokenization initiatives. The firm has identified HOOD, COIN, FIGR, and CRCL as key plays in this space.

As Morgan Stanley recently filed with the SEC for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, signaling growing institutional interest in crypto. This move aligns with broader adoption, as cumulative U.S. spot crypto ETF trading volume has exceeded $2 trillion. These products could provide more regulated access to crypto for mainstream investors.

Investors are also watching the Federal Reserve's next moves. The central bank is expected to continue easing policy, with potential implications for inflation and market liquidity. Analysts warn that aggressive rate cuts could reignite inflation, adding risk to the market outlook.

As the U.S. midterm elections approach, regulatory clarity on crypto and emerging technologies could play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment. Platforms like Kalshi, Robinhood, and Coinbase are expected to benefit from favorable regulatory developments.

The coming months will be critical for crypto treasuries and related stocks. While the long-term potential for Bitcoin and tokenization remains strong, short-term volatility and regulatory uncertainty could continue to weigh on investor confidence.