Sentimiento del mercado de criptomonedas y salidas de precios de las altcoins: Aprovechar la actividad de los “whales” y el comportamiento en la cadena para anticipar los puntos de inflexión del mercado

The 2025 cryptocurrency market has been defined by a stark divergence between institutional and retail behavior, with whale activity and on-chain metrics serving as critical signals for market inflection points and altcoin breakouts. As Bitcoin and Ethereum navigated periods of consolidation and volatility, large investors-often referred to as "whales"-demonstrated strategic accumulation patterns that contrasted sharply with retail selling pressure. These dynamics, combined with evolving on-chain indicators, offer a roadmap for investors seeking to anticipate shifts in market sentiment and capitalize on emerging altcoin opportunities.

Whale Behavior as a Market Barometer

Whale activity has historically acted as a leading indicator of market cycles. In late 2024 and early 2025, Bitcoin whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 56,227 BTC to their positions, signaling institutional confidence despite broader market volatility. This accumulation, observed during a period of "Extreme Fear" in December 2025, coincided with a Puell Multiple entering the "buy" zone-a metric historically linked to miner capitulation and the onset of bull runs. Meanwhile, retail investors holding less than 0.01 BTC continued to take profits, reinforcing a classic market dynamic where sophisticated players buy while less experienced participants sell.

Ethereum whales mirrored this trend, with large holders in the 10,000–100,000 ETH range increasing balances in April 2025, suggesting long-term bullish sentiment. Notably, Ethereum whales also rotated capital from high-risk altcoins like Solana to Ethereum itself, reflecting a shift toward more established ecosystems during periods of uncertainty. This behavior underscores the importance of monitoring whale movements across both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as they often precede broader market stabilization and eventual rebounds.

On-Chain Indicators for Altcoin Breakouts

The 2025 altcoin market has been characterized by mixed signals, but several on-chain metrics suggest the potential for breakouts. One key indicator is the formation of bullish divergences on weekly charts, where prices hit lower lows while indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) form higher lows. This pattern has been observed in projects like Optimism, Arbitrum, Near, and Avalanche, signaling weakening bearish momentum.

Another critical signal is the performance of the Others.D index, which tracks the market dominance of cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 by market capitalization. In early 2026, Others.D was at 6.88%, with analysts projecting a potential breakout above its multi-year falling wedge trendline-a move that could push the index to 13.77%. Such a breakout would indicate renewed buyer control in the altcoin space.

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) remains a pivotal metric. While BTC.D hovered around 58-60% in 2025, historical patterns suggest that a drop below 45% typically triggers altcoin momentum. The 50% growth in altcoin market capitalization since July 2025, coupled with surging centralized exchange trading volumes, further hints at early-stage altcoin season dynamics.

Case Studies of Whale-Driven Altcoin Breakouts

Several 2025 altcoin breakouts were directly preceded by whale activity. For instance, Ethereum whales sold 300,000 ETH ($971 million) in October 2025, contributing to broader market instability and a sharp selloff in altcoins like Solana and Cosmos during the October 11 "black swan" crash. However, this period also revealed opportunities: Ethereum's long-term holders (LTHs) reduced selling activity, stabilizing prices and setting the stage for a rebound.

In November 2025, whale accumulation in tokens like World Liberty Financial (WLFI), PEPE (a Solana-based meme coin), and The Sandbox (SAND) signaled potential reversals. WLFI saw a 4.82% increase in large investor holdings as its price dipped 12%, while PEPE and SAND attracted 8 million and 20 million tokens in whale purchases, respectively. These movements align with a broader decline in Bitcoin dominance to 57.4%, suggesting the early stages of an altcoin rotation.

Macro Dynamics and Institutional Rotation

The interplay between macroeconomic factors and whale behavior further shaped 2025's altcoin landscape. Bitcoin's on-chain weakness-evidenced by increased BTC flows to exchanges and declining daily active addresses-contrasted with Ethereum's resilience, which saw network growth reach a yearly high. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs recorded significant inflows, reflecting growing institutional confidence.

Regulatory developments also played a role. Ripple (XRP) gained traction after legal clarity in early 2025, with price forecasts suggesting a potential move toward $5.25 if spot ETF approval materialized. Similarly, TRON (TRX) and BlockDAG (BDAG) attracted attention through staking ETF potential and presale success, respectively.

Conclusion

The 2025 crypto market has demonstrated that whale activity and on-chain metrics are indispensable tools for anticipating market inflection points and altcoin breakouts. Institutional accumulation in Bitcoin and Ethereum during periods of retail selling, coupled with divergences in technical indicators like RSI and the Others.D index, provides a framework for identifying early-stage opportunities. While macroeconomic risks-such as geopolitical tensions and liquidity shocks-remain, the coordinated behavior of whales and the gradual decline in Bitcoin dominance suggest that altcoin season is approaching. Investors who integrate these signals into their strategies may position themselves to capitalize on the next wave of market cycles.