"A Crucial Ingredient for Production": What Mass Deportations Could Cost America

Mass deportations, a contentious topic in U.S. politics, could have significant economic consequences, particularly for industries heavily reliant on undocumented workers. A new report by the American Immigration Council highlights the potential costs of such a policy, focusing on the impact on the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rates, and fiscal expenses.

The report estimates that deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants would reduce the U.S. GDP by 1.5% to 2.6% over 10 years, translating to a loss of $300 billion to $500 billion. This decline would be due to labor shortages in key industries, such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, which rely heavily on undocumented workers. The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) Democrats estimated that mass deportations could reduce real GDP by as much as 7.4% by 2028, causing labor shortages in key industries and costing 44,000 U.S.-born workers their jobs for every half a million immigrants removed from the labor force.

Mass deportations could also lead to higher inflation rates due to labor shortages in key industries. The loss of immigrant labor during the COVID-19 pandemic helped fuel inflation by reducing the production of goods and services needed to meet demand from consumers, increasing prices. A June 2024 study found that deporting 7.5 million undocumented workers would produce three years of higher inflation, which would peak at 3.1% points. The JEC Democrats estimated that mass deportations could push prices up to 9.1% higher by 2028.



The fiscal costs of mass deportations are also significant. According to the American Immigration Council, deporting the undocumented all at once would cost the U.S. government at least $315 billion, an amount that expands to $967.9 billion if the U.S. deports one million individuals every year for a decade. These costs would stem from securing more beds for migrant detention facilities at a cost of $57,378 per year per bed, among other expenses. Additionally, the report estimates that it would cost roughly $7 billion per year to carry out one million removal orders per year, as many undocumented immigrants come from countries other than Mexico and Canada, requiring the use of air charter flights at $17,000 per flight hour.

In conclusion, mass deportations could have severe economic consequences for the United States, including significant reductions in GDP, higher inflation rates, and substantial fiscal costs. These findings underscore the importance of addressing immigration policy in a way that balances the enforcement of immigration laws with compassion and respect for human dignity.