CRON aumenta un 13,3% por los rumores de reclasificación de la marihuana de Trump: ¿será este el catalizador de una nueva corrida de toros?

Summary
• Cronos Group (CRON) rockets 13.28% to $3.2286, hitting a 52-week high of $3.26
• Trump’s potential Schedule III reclassification sparks sector-wide rally, with Tilray (TLRY) up 45%
• Options frenzy: CRON20260116C3 sees 2833 contracts traded, 156% price surge

Cronos Group’s explosive 13.28% intraday gain has thrust it into the spotlight as U.S. policy rumors resurface. The stock’s rally aligns with a broader cannabis sector surge, driven by speculation that President Trump may reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug. With CRON trading near its 52-week high and options chains erupting in activity, investors are scrambling to position for a potential regulatory paradigm shift.

Trump's Marijuana Reclassification Rumors Ignite CRON's Bullish Surge
The 13.28% intraday spike in CRON is directly tied to reports that President Trump is considering reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. This move, first hinted at in August 2025, has resurfaced as Bloomberg and Washington Post sources confirm ongoing discussions with HHS and CMS. A reclassification would ease federal restrictions, unlock tax benefits, and position cannabis companies for institutional investment. CRON’s 52-week high of $3.26—reached amid this frenzy—reflects investor optimism about expanded market access and the company’s recent $67M CanAdelaar acquisition, which targets the Netherlands’ adult-use market.

Cannabis Sector Soars as CRON Joins TLRY in Record-Breaking Gains
CRON’s 13.28% surge mirrors a sector-wide rally, with Tilray (TLRY) surging 45.07% and Aurora Cannabis (ACB) up 19%. The Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) has jumped 42.73%, while Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE) climbed 21.51%. This synchronized move underscores the sector’s sensitivity to regulatory shifts. CRON’s 52-week high of $3.26 aligns with its peers’ momentum, as investors bet on Trump’s potential policy overhaul to catalyze long-term growth.

Options Frenzy and ETFs: How to Capitalize on CRON’s Volatility
• RSI: 88.73 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.0581 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.0132
• 200-day MA: $2.20 (well above)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $3.2286 vs. Upper Band $2.76 (overextended)

CRON’s technicals scream short-term overbought conditions, but its 52-week high and sector momentum suggest a continuation. The Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) and Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE) offer leveraged exposure, with MJ up 42.73% and TOKE up 21.51%.

Top Options Plays:
• CRON20260116C3 (Call, $3 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 82.94% (high)
- Leverage: 7.15%
- Delta: 0.6613 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.006191 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.4364 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $92,464
- Payoff (5% up): $0.16 per share
- Why: High gamma and IV make this ideal for a 5% move.

• CRON20260417C3.5 (Call, $3.5 strike, Apr 17 2026):
- IV: 75.39% (moderate)
- Leverage: 16.09%
- Delta: 0.4136 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.005424 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.5112 (very high)
- Turnover: $32,066
- Payoff (5% up): $0.08 per share
- Why: High gamma and leverage amplify returns if CRON holds above $3.26.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy CRON20260116C3 for a 5% upside target. Conservative traders may use CRON20260417C3.5 for a longer-term play.

Backtest Cronos Group Stock Performance
The 13% intraday surge in CRON from 2022 to now has not consistently translated into positive short-to-medium-term returns. While the 3-Day, 10-Day, and 30-Day win rates are above 40%, the actual returns during these periods have been negative or only marginally positive. The maximum return during the backtest was 1.02%, which occurred on day 58 after the surge, indicating that even after a significant intraday increase, CRON's subsequent performance was lackluster.

CRON at a Crossroads: Ride the Trump Wave or Watch the Overbought Clock
CRON’s 13.28% surge hinges on the sustainability of Trump’s reclassification narrative. While the stock trades near its 52-week high of $3.26, RSI at 88.73 warns of overbought conditions. Investors should monitor the CRON20260116C3 options chain for liquidity and sentiment shifts. Sector leader Tilray (TLRY) up 45.07% reinforces the sector’s bullish case. Position for a potential breakout above $3.26 or consider short-term options plays like CRON20260116C3. Watch for regulatory clarity in early 2026—this could be the catalyst for a new bull run.