El “Mago de Cramer”: ¿Es el aumento del 65% en las temperaturas de Celsius una trampa o un engaño?

The stock's 65% surge this year is a direct reaction to a powerful dual catalyst. The immediate spark was Jim Cramer's enthusiastic endorsement in a June episode, where he called the company "doing incredibly well" and highlighted its momentum. But the fundamental engine behind the move is the strategic acquisition of Alani Nu, announced in February 2025.

The deal creates a combined entity targeting annual revenues north of $2 billion after closing. Management believes this will be additive to earnings in the first year and unlock $50 million in synergies within two years. The strategic rationale is clear: Celsius has a much larger distribution network than Alani Nu, and integrating the two brands should generate explosive growth. This is already playing out, as Alani Nu's transition into PepsiCo's DSD network is expected to significantly broaden its reach early next year.

So, is the 65% run a sentiment play on Cramer's buzz, or a justified reaction to improved fundamentals? The evidence points to the latter. Cramer's call followed the company's strong February earnings and the Alani Nu announcement. Since then, analyst sentiment has turned more positive, and scanner data has been incrementally supportive. The stock's outperformance against a declining beverage sector underscores that the market is pricing in the deal's potential to accelerate retail momentum and broaden distribution. The endorsement amplified the narrative, but the surge is built on the mechanics of the acquisition.

The Setup: Outperforming the Beverage Sector

The stock's 65.1% surge this year is not a random outlier. It's a direct outperformance against a struggling industry. While Celsius shares have climbed sharply, the broader beverage sector has declined by 15.7%, and even the S&P 500 has gained 18.7%. This divergence is the first signal that the move is rooted in company-specific strength, not market-wide euphoria.

The core engine is the CELSIUS brand itself. It remains one of the fastest-growing products in the energy drink category, consistently gaining market share across key retail channels like convenience, mass, and grocery. This isn't just top-line growth; it's a fundamental shift in competitive positioning. The brand's momentum has been supported by improved shelf placement, expanded cooler presence, and enhanced merchandising-all of which are now being amplified by a strategic partnership.

That partnership is with PepsiCo, and it's the critical accelerator. The collaboration is helping to expand Celsius's market presence through PepsiCo's extensive distribution network. The recent transition of Alani Nu into PepsiCo's direct-store delivery system is a concrete example of this. This move is expected to significantly broaden reach early next year, providing a tangible channel for growth beyond what Celsius could achieve alone.

The quality of this growth setup is strong. It's built on a brand gaining share, supported by a distribution partner with unmatched scale. The recent integration of Alani Nu and the potential for Rockstar Energy to enter a new consumer base add layers of portfolio expansion. Yet, as the evidence notes, near-term volatility is a hurdle, with integration costs and distributor wind-downs likely to pressure margins in the coming quarters. For now, the fundamental drivers are clear and powerful, but the sustainability of the premium valuation will depend on whether this operational momentum can translate into consistent, high-margin earnings.

The Trade: Valuation, Risks, and Immediate Next Catalysts

The bullish sentiment is clear. Investors are rewarding Celsius for its rapid portfolio transformation and innovation engine. The stock's 65.1% surge this year against a declining beverage sector shows the market is pricing in the combined growth potential of Celsius and Alani Nu. This isn't just about one brand; it's about a company successfully broadening its reach through PepsiCo and launching new products that consistently outperform. The setup is tactical: the market is betting that this operational momentum will soon translate into stronger, more predictable earnings.

Yet, the key risk is that the stock's momentum is overdone. The valuation reflects immense optimism. Celsius trades at a forward P/E of 57 times this year's earnings, a steep premium. While that's cheaper than its three-year average of 89 times, it leaves little room for error. Analysts have noted that the price may not fully reflect the company's growth potential, suggesting the current run could be vulnerable to any stumble in execution or integration. The stock's premium is a bet on flawless delivery of the Alani Nu synergies and continued market-share gains.

The primary near-term catalyst is the closing of the Alani Nu acquisition and the integration of the two brands. The deal is already creating a combined entity targeting annual revenues north of $2 billion. The immediate focus will be on hitting the promised $50 million in synergies within two years. The transition of Alani Nu into PepsiCo's direct-store delivery network, which began in December, is a concrete early step. Any delay or cost overrun here would directly challenge the bullish thesis.

Other key watchpoints are the continued market-share gains in the core CELSIUS brand and execution on the PepsiCo partnership. The brand remains one of the fastest-growing products in energy drinks, but maintaining that pace requires constant innovation and effective merchandising. The partnership with PepsiCo is the critical accelerator, providing unmatched distribution. Any friction in that relationship or a slowdown in retail momentum would be a red flag.

The immediate risk/reward setup hinges on these near-term events. The stock has already priced in a best-case scenario. For the rally to continue, Celsius must demonstrate it can integrate Alani Nu smoothly, hit synergy targets, and keep its core brand growing. Any stumble would likely trigger a sharp re-rating. The trade now is about waiting for confirmation of this flawless execution.