CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview for 2025-09-25

• Price fell from 0.2882 to 0.2745 over 24 hours, ending at 0.2761 with bearish bias.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum with oversold conditions near 0.2745.
• Volatility expanded early, then contracted as price found support around 0.273–0.275.
• High-volume sell-off occurred at 0.2827 → 0.2777 on 09/25, confirming bearish exhaustion.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.2762 (38.2%) and 0.2745 (61.8%) show strong short-term support.

The CoW Protocol/USDC pair opened at 0.2882 on 2025-09-24 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.2761 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.2882 and a low of 0.2733 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 135,240.7 and total turnover was approximately 35,529.9 (USDC). The price showed a clear bearish bias, with significant volume-driven sell-offs observed after midnight.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern with a key support area identified at 0.273–0.275, supported by several candles showing strong rejection of lower levels. Notable bearish engulfing patterns occurred at 0.2827 → 0.2777 and 0.2809 → 0.2738. A potential resistance zone reformed at 0.277–0.278 as price tested this range multiple times. A long lower shadow at 0.2745 suggests buyers may be stepping in near this critical level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below current price levels, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA earlier in the 24-hour period, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the price is below both the 50 and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI indicator dropped to oversold territory around 0.2745, signaling potential near-term support. However, the MACD remains in negative territory, indicating continued bearish momentum. A potential bearish divergence formed between the price and the RSI near 0.2761–0.2745, suggesting the bear phase may not yet be over.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session, with a high of 0.2882 and low of 0.2733, but contracted as the price moved toward the lower band. Price has remained near the lower Bollinger band for much of the 24-hour period, indicating a period of consolidation after a sharp selloff. A break below the lower band at 0.2733 could trigger further bearish action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15-minute period at 02:30 ET (09/25) with a large trade volume of 36,709.9, coinciding with the price moving from 0.2827 to 0.2777. This high-volume move confirmed the bearish breakdown. Turnover also increased significantly during this period. However, subsequent volume has trended lower, suggesting waning selling pressure. No notable price-volume divergence was observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.2882–0.2733 swing, the price found support at 0.2762 (38.2%) and 0.2745 (61.8%). These levels have shown repeated rejection, suggesting they may be key turning points. A break below 0.2733 (100%) could trigger a deeper correction toward potential support levels at 0.271–0.272.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be designed to exploit the observed consolidation and Fibonacci support at 0.2745. For example, a long entry could be triggered on a bullish breakout from the 0.2733–0.2745 consolidation range, with a stop-loss below 0.2733 and a target at 0.2762 (38.2% retracement). This would capitalize on the likelihood of buyers stepping in near 0.2745 after a sharp selloff. A short strategy could alternatively target a break below 0.2733 with a target at 0.271–0.272, assuming the bear trend continues. Both setups should be tested against historical 15-minute OHLCV data for accuracy.