Boletín de AInvest
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Summary
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Cybersecurity Sector Under Pressure as Coupang Plummets, CRWD Trails
The broader cybersecurity sector mirrors Coupang’s turbulence, with CrowdStrike (CRWD) down 2.09%. However, Coupang’s decline is more severe due to its direct exposure to regulatory penalties and customer trust erosion. While CRWD’s drop reflects sector-wide jitters, Coupang’s unique legal liabilities—stemming from its data breach—have isolated it as a high-risk asset.
Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Coupang's Volatility with Strategic Contracts
• RSI: 27.5 (oversold)
• MACD: -1.03 (bearish), Signal Line: -1.08
• Bollinger Bands: $21.65–$24.61 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $27.85 (price 24% below)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $22.40–22.51, 200D $28.30–28.57
Coupang’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition but long-term bearish bias. Key levels to watch: $21.65 (lower Bollinger Band) and $22.40 (30D support). A 5% downside scenario (to $19.75) could trigger put option gains. Two options stand out:
• (Put):
- Strike: $19.50, Expiry: 2026-01-23
- IV: 38.50% (moderate), Leverage: 208.05%, Delta: -0.143, Theta: -0.002, Gamma: 0.170, Turnover: 1210
- IV (Implied Volatility): Reflects market uncertainty
- Leverage: Amplifies returns on price moves
- Delta: Sensitive to moderate declines
- Gamma: High sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover: High liquidity ensures ease of entry/exit
- Payoff: $0.50 per share if
• (Call):
- Strike: $21.50, Expiry: 2026-01-23
- IV: 42.72% (moderate), Leverage: 65.02%, Delta: 0.339, Theta: -0.055, Gamma: 0.248, Turnover: 5406
- IV: Reflects moderate volatility
- Leverage: Moderate amplification of gains
- Delta: Balanced sensitivity to price moves
- Gamma: High responsiveness to volatility shifts
- Turnover: Extremely liquid for aggressive plays
- Payoff: $0.75 per share if CPNG rebounds to $21.50.
Hook: Aggressive bears should target CPNG20260123P19.5 for a 5% downside bet, while bulls eye CPNG20260123C21.5 for a bounce above $21.50.
Backtest Coupang Stock Performance
The performance of CPNG after a -5% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present has shown mixed results in the backtest. While the stock has experienced a maximum return of 4.26% over 30 days, the overall returns have been relatively modest, with a 2.68% return over 30 days. The backtest indicates a slightly positive outcome, but the returns suggest that the stock may not have recovered strongly from the intraday plunge.
Act Now: Coupang's Legal and Cybersecurity Turmoil Demands Tactical Positioning
Coupang’s near-term trajectory hinges on regulatory outcomes and leadership stability. The oversold RSI (27.5) and bearish MACD (-1.03) suggest a potential rebound, but the 200D MA ($27.85) remains a distant target. Investors should prioritize short-term options like CPNG20260123P19.5 for bearish exposure or CPNG20260123C21.5 for a rebound trade. Monitor the sector leader CrowdStrike (CRWD, -2.09%) for broader cybersecurity trends. Action: Watch for a breakdown below $21.65 or a regulatory update by February 17—the lead plaintiff deadline in the class-action lawsuits.
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