Coupang Gains 3.36% as Bullish Candlestick and High Volume Push Price Toward Key Resistance

Coupang (CPNG) closed the most recent session with a 3.36% gain, pushing the price to $33.5, which aligns with a key resistance cluster observed around $32.43–$33.555. This price action suggests a potential breakout from a consolidation phase, as the stock has oscillated between $28.1 and $31.78 over the past two months. A bullish candlestick pattern emerged on 2025-09-08, characterized by an 8.96% surge and high volume ($1.46 billion), forming a strong support zone near $29.81. However, bearish divergence is evident in the RSI and MACD, which may signal exhaustion in the rally.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action reflects a “bullish engulfing” pattern on 2025-09-15, where the body of the candle engulfs the previous day’s range, reinforcing the breakout. Key support levels are identified at $32.41 (2025-09-12 low) and $31.5 (2025-09-08 close), while resistance resides at $32.81 (2025-09-11 high) and $33.555 (2025-09-15 high). A breakdown below $31.5 could trigger a retest of the $29.81 support, whereas a close above $33.555 would confirm a shift in the short-term trend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (approximately $29.2) and 100-day MA ($28.6) remain below the 200-day MA ($27.9), indicating a long-term downtrend. However, the 50-day MA is flattening, suggesting decelerating bearish momentum. The price currently sits above all three moving averages, which may indicate a temporary retracement rather than a sustained reversal. A crossover of the 50-day above the 100-day MA would be a critical bullish signal.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has contracted from positive territory, reflecting weakening bullish momentum, while the KDJ (Stochastic) indicator shows an overbought reading (K=85, D=78). This suggests a potential pullback, though bearish confirmation requires a close below the 200-day MA. Divergence between the KDJ and price (e.g., higher highs in price without corresponding K/D peaks) may indicate a loss of upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price near the upper band on 2025-09-15, a classic overbought condition. The bands have widened from a narrow contraction in late August, signaling heightened uncertainty. A reversal from the upper band could drive the price toward the middle band ($30.7), but sustained volume above $600 million (as seen on 2025-09-08) suggests buyers remain active.

Volume-Price Relationship

Volume surged on the 2025-09-08 rally ($1.46 billion) and again on 2025-09-15 ($615 million), validating the price action. However, volume has declined on recent follow-through rallies (e.g., 2025-09-11), which may indicate waning conviction. A divergence between price and volume (e.g., higher highs with lower volume) could precede a reversal.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory (70). While this suggests a potential correction, historical data shows RSI frequently peaks above 70 before resuming upward trends. A close below 50 would confirm bearish momentum, but the current reading should be treated with caution due to the stock’s tendency to exhibit “oversold rebounds” (e.g., 2025-08-06, RSI=30).

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels are established between the 2025-08-06 low ($27.23) and the 2025-09-08 high ($31.78). The 50% level ($29.5) and 61.8% level ($28.5) act as critical supports. The current price of $33.5 aligns with the 78.6% retracement, suggesting a possible pause before resuming the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the strategy—buying CPNG when RSI exceeds 70 and holding for one week—yielded a -25.41% return from 2022 to the present, underperforming the benchmark’s 47.31%. This poor performance may stem from the stock’s tendency to retrace quickly after overbought conditions, as seen in the 2025-09-08 rally followed by a 1.03% drop on 2025-09-11. The strategy’s zero maximum drawdown suggests it avoided large losses but failed to capture broader gains, likely due to overbought entries triggering immediate corrections. Integrating Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band analysis could refine the strategy by avoiding overbought entries near upper bands and instead targeting retracements to key supports.