La membresía de Costco vuelve a hacer ruido: una respuesta defensiva para tiempos inciertos

In volatile markets, investors seek companies with enduring economic moats—sustainable advantages that shield profitability during downturns. Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) exemplifies this resilience, leveraging its membership-driven model to build a fortress-like competitive advantage. Let's dissect how Costco's strategic enhancements to executive memberships, customer loyalty mechanisms, and operational efficiency position it as a defensive stock with high growth potential.

The Economic Moat: Membership Fees, Supplier Leverage, and Private-Label Dominance

Costco's moat is three-pronged: membership fees, supplier leverage, and private-label dominance.
1. Membership Fees: With 76.2 million paid households (up 7.3% YoY) and a 90.5% global renewal rate, membership revenue totaled $5.6 billion in FY2024. The shift to higher-margin Executive Members (46.5% of total members, contributing 73.5% of sales) amplifies this revenue stream. The recent $130 annual Executive fee (up from $120 in 2023) underscores the premium value members derive from perks like early access and $10/month Instacart credits, which lock in loyalty while boosting margins.
2. Supplier Leverage: Costco's buying power secures discounted pricing on bulk items, which it passes to members. This creates a flywheel: Kirkland Signature, now 33% of U.S. sales, enjoys 92.9% renewal rates in its core markets. New SKUs like organic maple syrup and eco-friendly packaging innovations (e.g., 80% less plastic in laundry detergent) further differentiate the brand.
3. Private-Label Dominance: Kirkland's sustainability-driven cost savings (e.g., 30% lower freight costs for Japanese paper towels) and premium quality positioning have made it a $30 billion+ annual business. This scale allows Costco to undercut competitors while maintaining margins.

Executive Membership Perks: Driving Sales Concentration and Margin Resilience

The June 2025 executive membership upgrades—early warehouse access and $10/month Instacart credits—are strategic moves to deepen ties with high-spending members.
- Early Access: By granting Executive Members exclusive entry 1 hour earlier (9 a.m.) than Gold Star members, Costco reduces congestion for its most valuable customers while boosting foot traffic. The 7 p.m. Saturday closing extension further enhances convenience, appealing to time-starved affluent households.
- Instacart Credits: The $10/month credit incentivizes higher-order volumes ($150+), directly boosting gross margins. With Executive Members already accounting for 73.5% of sales, these perks further concentrate revenue among the highest-margin cohort.

Financially, these changes are a win-win:
- Margin Resilience: Even as inflation pressures persist, Costco's 12.2 inventory turnover ratio (among the highest in retail) and fee hikes ensure steady EBITDA growth.
- Customer Retention: While some members criticize exclusionary policies (e.g., nostalgia for discontinued perks), the 9.6% YoY growth in Executive Members suggests the strategy is working.

Competing with RH: Why Costco's Model is More Sustainable

While RH (NYSE: RH) targets affluent customers with luxury home products and bespoke experiences, its 6.5% adjusted operating margin and demand growth of just 3% (Q1 2024) pale against Costco's scale. Key contrasts:
1. Customer Reach vs. Niche Luxury:
- Costco: Serves 76 million members globally, including 46% under 40, ensuring demographic diversity.
- RH: Focuses on ultra-affluent buyers (e.g., $200K+ homes), limiting scalability.
2. Profitability:
- Costco's membership model generates predictable revenue, while RH's reliance on high-margin luxury goods exposes it to housing market cycles.
3. Global Expansion:
- Costco's 29 new warehouses in 2025 (including 10 internationally) contrast with RH's slower rollout (5 North American, 2 international Galleries).

Costco's $12 billion cash reserves and 2-3% operating margins (vs. RH's 7.5% GAAP margin) reflect a more capital-efficient, recession-resistant business model.

Financial Metrics: A Case for Long-Term Investment

• Renewal Rates: Even with 0.1% dip in U.S. renewal rates, the 92.9% retention in core markets is enviable.
• Margin Resilience: Despite inflation, Costco's 13.2% e-commerce growth and $18.9 billion in free cash flow (FY2023) highlight operational strength.
• Dividend History: A 18% dividend increase in 2024 (to $3.60 annually) signals confidence in cash flow.

Risks and the Investment Case

• Risks:
• Amazon/Walmart Competition: Private-label and e-commerce expansions could erode market share.
• Interest Rates: Higher rates may slow housing-linked sales (e.g., Waterworks).

• Supply Chain Delays: Backlogs could pressure margins if resolved slowly.

• Why Invest Now?

• Defensive Profile: Membership revenue is recession-proof, and Kirkland's 30% sales contribution ensures stability.
• Valuation: Trading at 32x forward earnings, Costco is pricey but justified by its 20%+ EPS growth track record.
• Dividend Safety: The 1.2% yield is low but growing steadily.

Actionable Takeaway: Costco's moat is widening. Investors should view dips below $600 as buying opportunities, especially with $12B in cash and a fortress balance sheet.

In a market rife with uncertainty, Costco's membership-driven model is a rare blend of defensive stability and growth potential. While risks exist, its ability to command loyalty, scale private labels, and monetize premium tiers makes it a top pick for long-term portfolios.