Cosmos/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• ATOMUSDT opened at $2.567 and closed at $2.654, with a 24-hour high of $2.67 and low of $2.346.
• The pair surged 7.7% from a key support near $2.416, forming a bullish engulfing pattern from $2.417 to $2.506.
• Volume spiked to $339,681.13 during the breakdown to $2.356 and then surged again at $2.65–2.67.
• RSI reached overbought territory above 65 while MACD showed positive divergence.
• Volatility expanded as the price moved outside upper Bollinger Bands for the last 3 hours.

Market Overview

Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) opened at $2.567 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.654 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, hitting a 24-hour high of $2.67 and low of $2.346. The pair has experienced significant volatility, with total trading volume reaching 2,991,305.57 and notional turnover totaling $7,760,893.10 in the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

A key support level emerged around $2.416–2.417, where the price found a base after a sharp drop to $2.356. From there, a strong bullish engulfing pattern formed, with a body from $2.417 to $2.506, suggesting a reversal in sentiment. The price then continued to push higher, forming a series of higher highs and lower lows, indicating a potential continuation of bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both trended upward, with price consistently above the 50 SMA. This suggests a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at $2.55, while the 200-period MA is near $2.50. Price is currently above both, maintaining a medium-term bullish alignment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12,26,9) has shown positive divergence as the bullish momentum continues to build, with the line crossing above the signal line. RSI has climbed into overbought territory (above 65) for the past 4 hours, suggesting that further gains could face resistance. However, the overbought condition has not led to immediate correction, indicating strong bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly as price broke above the upper Bollinger Band at $2.65–2.67 in the last 3 hours. The bands had previously been in a tight contraction phase during the consolidation phase near $2.416–2.437, signaling a potential breakout. The current expansion suggests increased risk of either continuation or a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the breakdown to $2.346 (339,681.13) and again during the recent rally at $2.65–2.67 (56,141.64). Notional turnover also surged during these phases, confirming the strength of both the breakdown and breakout. However, the recent rally lacks a proportional increase in volume compared to the breakdown, suggesting the move may face near-term exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price has moved beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.62, indicating a strong continuation of the upward trend. Looking at the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level was near $2.65, which has now been tested and held. A break above $2.67 could target the next major level at $2.70.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent bullish engulfing pattern from $2.417 to $2.506 aligns with the type of signals used in the backtest, though the 1-day hold strategy historically delivered a negative return. The signal appears promising in context, but caution is warranted. The overbought RSI and lack of strong volume confirmation for the recent rally suggest that a short-term pullback is probable. Investors should consider additional filters such as volume confirmation or trend alignment before entering based on this setup.